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3 December 2019                              Morning Session Analysis

 

Greenback plummets further amid weak manufacturing.

Dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have extend its losses further on Tuesday’s early Asian session amid release of manufacturing data. According to ISM, manufacturing activity in the U.S have slumped with the reading of 48.1 against market expectation of 49.2. The data have fell for the fourth consecutive month which signaling weak demand and weaker economy outlook. Besides that, U.S President Donald Trump have announced a tariff plan for steel and aluminum from Argentina and Brazil which increased the uncertainty global economic growth. In terms of US trade deal with China, a statement from Secretary from Commerce Wilbur Ross shows that U.S President Donald Trump is willing to increase tariffs if there is no deal. Dollar index have plunged 0.39% to 97.74 as of writing. Elsewhere, EUR/USD rose 0.06% to 1.1076 at the time of writing following strong manufacturing activity in the Euro. According to Markit Economics, manufacturing in the Eurozone have improved with the reading of 46.9, higher than market expectation of 46.6. Besides that, manufacturing sector also improved in Germany with the reading 44.1 against market forecast of 43.8. At the same time, decline in dollar also help solidify the bullish support for the Euro.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains on recovery and climbs 0.14% to $55.99 per barrel at the time of writing following new Saudi cuts plan and China data. The price jumped after Iraqi oil minister Thamir al-Ghadhban leaked to the media OPEC’s plans to deepen by more than a third its current output cuts. At the same time, strong Chinese manufacturing data also help further support the early rally for the commodity as the world’s second-largest economy was doing better than thought, despite its 16-month-long trade war with the U.S. Next, gold price rose 0.09% to $1462.60 as of writing following market risk aversion after the U.S. reaffirm its tariffs ultimatum to China.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

11.30                       AUD                      AUD – RBA Rate Statement

Tentative                 GBP                      BoE MPC Treasury Committee Hearings

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
11.30 AUD – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 43.8 43.8
17.30 GBP – Construction PMI (Nov) 44.2 44.5

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 98.20. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 97.60

 

Resistance level: 98.20, 98.90

Support level: 97.60, 96.95

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 1.2970. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level 1.2970.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3095

Support level: 1.2785, 1.2690

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1080. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level 1.1080.

 

Resistance level: 1.1080, 1.1170

Support level: 1.0990, 1.0925

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 109.05. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 108.65.

 

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.40

Support level: 108.60, 108.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6825. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6880

Support level: 0.6770, 0.6715

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6500. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair may experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.6435.

 

Resistance level: 0.6500, 0.6585

Support level: 0.6435, 0.6340

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from its low level. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 1.3320.

 

Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3385

Support level: 1.3260, 1.3185

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9915. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9980, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9845

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 56.30. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 56.30, 57.50

Support level: 54.85, 53.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1463.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1463.70, 1477.90

Support level: 1450.75, 1432.40