GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

151119 Afternoon Session Analysis

15 November 2019                            Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Safe-haven Yen fell on market risk recovery.

The Japanese Yen which traded against the greenback have fell during late Asian session on Friday as the risk-recovery on renewed optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. According to the latest development, White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow have stated that the U.S are “getting close” to trade deal with China. The remarks have since act as the main catalyst which help propelled the risk sentiment in the market. Recently, China have display a goodwill gestures which it have announced lifting the restrictions on the US poultry imports, improving the optimism of trade deal. Furthermore, despite recent skepticism from Financial Times report, the news of the restart of the US-China trade talks later on Friday also improve risk appetite. Thus, the positive news also diminished the appeal of safe-haven asset such as Yen. The focus will likely remain on the primary level phone call between the US and Chinese trade teams for fresh cues on the risk trends that will eventually impact anti-risk Yen in the day ahead. At the time of writing, USD/JPY gains 0.16% to 108.56 while dollar index have edge lower 0.03% to 98.14.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.30% to $57.03 per barrel at the time of writing as hopes of supply curb and new optimism on U.S.-China trade deal have helped bolstered the market confidence towards the commodity. On Thursday, OPEC have stated that it expected demand for its oil to fall in 2020 and expect to maintain limits on production that were introduced to cope with a supply glut. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.21% to $1468.06 as of writing amid increasing risk sentiment which have caused investors to shift their portfolio from safe-have market into more risky assets.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event     

10.45                     CAD                                        BoC Goz Poloz Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.7% 0.7%
21:30 US – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% 0.4%
21:30 US – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% 0.2%
02:00 (16th) CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 684  

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 98.25. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 97.60.

 

Resistance level: 98.25, 98.90

Support level: 97.60, 96.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 1.2970.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3095

Support level: 1.2795, 1.2690

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.0990. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1060.

 

Resistance level: 1.1060, 1.1170

Support level: 1.0990, 1.0925

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 108.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 108.85.

 

Resistance level: 108.85, 109.40

Support level: 108.25, 107.55

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6810.

 

Resistance level: 0.6810, 0.6875

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6670

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from MA line. However, due to lack of momentum and clear direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6500

Support level: 0.6340, 0.6275

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3255. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.3185.

 

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3185, 1.3135

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from its low levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9915.

 

Resistance level: 0.9915, 0.9980

Support level: 0.9845, 0.9800

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 57.55. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 56.30.

 

Resistance level: 57.55, 59.40

Support level: 56.30, 54.85

 

GOLD_ H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the MA line 50 (blue). MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1460.00.

 

Resistance level: 1480.50, 1497.00

Support level: 1460.00, 1445.70.

 

151119 Morning Session Analysis

15 November 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

Greenback slumped, eyed on trade war.

The dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies plunged amid hope upon the resolution of trade war faded. According to Financial Times, China and United States were struggling to reach a “phase one” deal and may not settle ahead of 15th December 2019, when U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are set to go into effect. In addition, US dollar received a further pressure following the bleak Initial Jobless Claims data was published. According to Department of Labor, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims notched up to 225k, prior to 211k, lower than the economist forecast of 215k. However, the losses experienced by the US dollar was limited as US Producer Price index came in better than expectation, bolstering the Federal Reserve’s stance that it will probably not decrease its interest rates again in short-term. On the other hand, Pound Sterling surged despite bleak data from the UK region was released, mostly due to positive prospect for the Brexit issue. According to Bloomberg, expectations that Britain’s ruling Conservative Party might win a majority in 12th December 2019 election, further enhanced the investors’ optimism that the Brexit impasse will finally end and sparkled the demand for the Pound Sterling. However, according to the Office for National Statistics, U.K Retail Sales for last month came in at -0.1%, weaker than the economist forecast at 0.2%, limited the gains experienced by the Pound Sterling. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.23% to 97.97 while GBP/USD surged 0.01% to 1.2880.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped yesterday amid to an increase in crock piles in the U.S. According to Energy Information Administration, US Crude Oil inventories came in at 2.219M, exceeding the economist forecast at 1.649M. On the other hand, gold price rose amid to weaker greenback and the escalation of trade tension. As of writing, crude oil price traded flat at $56.85 per barrel, while gold price appreciated by 0.01% to $1470.82 per troy ounces.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event     

10:45                  CAD                      BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) 0.7% 0.7%
21:30 US – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% 0.4%
21:30 US – Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% 0.2%
02:00 (16th) CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 684  

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 97.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 98.20, 98.45

Support level: 97.90, 97.70

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2760. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2980.

 

Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3180

Support level: 1.2760, 1.2560

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1010. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1165

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0955

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 108.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 108.35.

 

Resistance level: 108.90, 109.50

Support level: 108.35,107.75

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6810. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6760.

 

Resistance level: 0.6810, 0.6880

Support level: 0.6760, 0.6705

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6360. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6390, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6360, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3260. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9905. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9870.

 

Resistance level: 0.9905, 0.9950

Support level: 0.9870, 0.9835

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 57.35. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest its prices to extend its losses toward support level at 55.85.

 

Resistance level: 57.35, 58.85

Support level: 55.85, 53.95

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1473.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1462.75.

 

Resistance level: 1473.60, 1482.95

Support level: 1462.75, 1451.70

141119 Afternoon Session Analysis

14 November 2019                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Yen surged as trade tension escalated.

Japanese Yen surged as ongoing uncertainty which surround the current trade negotiation have sparkled the demand for the safe-haven asset such as Japanese Yen. According to Reuters, US-China trade negotiations have “hit a snag” over farm purchases, with Beijing not wanting a deal that looks one-sided in favour of the United States. In fact, such negative sentiment came after U.S President Donald Trump warned that he would raise tariffs “substantially” on Chinese goods if there was no deal, spurring a further uncertainty upon the trade talk and insinuating the demand on the Japanese Yen. However, the gains experienced by Japanese Yen was limited following the release of bleak data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the region. According to the Cabinet Office, Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last quarter notched down to 0.1%, weaker than the market expectation of 0.2%. On the other hand, Australian dollar received huge sell-off pressure in the early morning following the bleak data from the Australia region was released. According to Australian Bureau of Statistic, Australian Employment change came in at -19.0k, worse than the economist forecast of 15.0k, spurring sell-off upon the Australian dollar. As of writing, USD/JPY depreciated by 0.02% to 108.80 while AUD/USD plunged 0.50% to 0.6800.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price surged after U.S API Weekly Crude Oil Stock was released. According to American Petroleum Institute, U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock notched down to -0.500M from the reading of 4.260M. On the other hand, gold price rose yesterday amid negative prospect for the trade deal. As of writing, crude oil price rose 0.02 % to $57.36 per barrel and gold price appreciated by 0.01% to $1462.85 per troy ounces.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Testifies

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ)(Q3) -0.1% -0.1%
17:30 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM(Oct) 0.2%
21:30 USD – PPI (MoM)(Oct) -0.3% 0.3%
00:00

(15th)

CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories 7.929M 1.649M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 98.25. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 97.60.

 

Resistance level: 98.25, 98.90

Support level: 97.60, 96.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded flat in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal and direction from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering the market.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3095

Support level: 1.2795, 1.2690

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.0990. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1060.

 

Resistance level: 1.1060, 1.1170

Support level: 1.0990, 1.0925

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 108.85. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 108.25.

 

Resistance level: 108.85, 109.40

Support level: 108.25, 107.55

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6810. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6725.

 

Resistance level: 0.6810, 0.6875

Support level: 0.6725, 0.6670

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.6425. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6340.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6500

Support level: 0.6340, 0.6275

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3255. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction towards the support level 1.3185.

 

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3300

Support level: 1.3185, 1.3135

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.9915. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the current support level 0.9915.

 

Resistance level: 0.9915, 0.9980

Support level: 0.9845, 0.9800

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the resistance level 57.55. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 57.55, 59.40

Support level: 56.30, 54.85

 

GOLD_ H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1460.00. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a short term technical correction towards back the support level 1460.00.

 

Resistance level: 1480.50, 1497.00

Support level: 1460.00, 1445.70

 

141119 Morning Session Analysis

14 November 2019                            Morning Session Analysis

 

Monetary policy unchanged while eyeing on more data.

 

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies depreciate slightly amid Jerome Powell downbeat comment regarding the US economy outlook. In the early morning testifies, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell stuck to his view that interest rate should be keep at current rate for the time being while signaling that further cut is still possible if US economy growth outlook remain faded. Moreover, Powell also revealed that the previous rate cut on cash rate was due to the occurring of extremely low inflation pressure in US economy, risk of global growth slowing down and tension of trade war outweigh the possibility of economy overheating. However, Core CPI data which was announced on yesterday has limit the losses of greenback. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Core CPI data came in at 0.2%, hitting the economist expectation while hinting the sign that underlying inflation start picking up.   During Asian trading session, dollar index drop 0.02% to 98.00. On the other hand, the pair of USD/JPY inched up 0.01% to 108.80 following Japan GDP data showed a growth of 0.1% compared to economist forecast of 0.2%, seemingly global uncertainty risk tampered the pace the inflation growth in Japan.

In the commodities market, crude oil price inched down 0.09% to $57.30 per barrel after hitting skyrocketed for more than 2% yesterday amid surprise drop in US crude oil inventories level lit up the crude oil market sentiment. According to the API inventory data, crude oil inventory level has declined 0.5 million barrel while comparing to economist forecast of 1.649 million barrel build. Next, gold price rose 0.09% to $1464.10 a troy ounce as of writing amid uncertainty over Brexit issue and trade war dragged down the market risk appetite.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

23:00                     USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Testifies

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ)(Q3) -0.1% -0.1%
17:30 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM(Oct) 0.2%
21:30 USD – PPI (MoM)(Oct) -0.3% 0.3%
00:00

(15th)

CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories 7.929M 1.649M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 97.75. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 98.35.

 

Resistance level: 98.35, 98.80

Support level: 97.75, 97.30

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2820. MACD which illustrated bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the top level of downward channel.

 

Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3170

Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1005. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.1005.

 

Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1170

Support level: 1.1005, 1.0930

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term toward the support level at 108.40.

 

Resistance level: 108.85, 109.25

Support level: 108.40, 107.80

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6835. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6835.

 

Resistance level: 0.6835, 0.6880

Support level: 0.6795, 0.6745

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6365. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6425.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6460

Support level: 0.6365, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3210. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3275.

 

Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9885. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.9915.

 

Resistance level: 0.9915, 0.9945

Support level: 0.9885, 0.9850

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the sideway channel top level at 57.50. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 57.50.

 

Resistance level: 57.50, 58.55

Support level: 56.80, 56.25

 

GOLD_ H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the 20 moving average line (Red). Due to lack of signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait for further confirmation before entering the gold market.

 

Resistance level: 1471.65, 1480.95

Support level: 1458.70, 1448.95

131119 Afternoon Session Analysis

13 November 2019                            Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Kiwi surged amid interest rate decision

The New Zealand dollar skyrocketed 1% on early Wednesday following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand bank maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 1.0%. Almost all analysts had forecasted a rate cut in the 1% benchmark rate to a record-low 0.75%, amid the poor global economic development. However, New Zealand Monetary Committee claimed that the employment rate in New Zealand was remained around its maximum sustainable level, while the inflation rate was still within their target range. In fact, they reiterate that New Zealand’s export commodity prices have been robust, underpinning a positive term of trade. Such monetary decision had beat the market expectation, sparkled the huge demand for the New Zealand Dollar. However, the committee claimed that they would continue to scrutinize the future economic data to gauge the likelihood of future monetary politics. On the other hand, dollar index slumped yesterday following U.S President Donald Trump in speech on Tuesday did not offer any new details on the state of the administration’s trade war with China, disappointing the investors. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious as they are still waiting for the future updates with regards to US-China trade talk to retain further trading signal. As of writing, NZD/USD surged 1.12% to 0.6395 while the dollar index appreciated by 0.02% to 98.13.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.11% to $56.70 per barrels as the prospects for the trade deal between the United States and China dimmed, weighing on the outlook for the global economy. On the other hand, gold price surged 0.06% to $1457.11 per troy ounces as ongoing uncertainty which surrounds the current trade negations has spurred higher demand for the safe-haven.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

00:00 (14th)          USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.7% 1.6%
21:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% 0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 98.25. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 98.25, 98.90

Support level: 97.60, 96.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while traded flat near the support level 1.2795. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term towards the support level 1.2795.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3095

Support level: 1.2795, 1.2690

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.0990. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1060.

 

Resistance level: 1.1060, 1.1170

Support level: 1.0990, 1.0925

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 108.85. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 109.40.

 

Resistance level: 109.40, 109.90

Support level: 108.85, 108.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6875. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 0.6875.

 

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6925

Support level: 0.6810, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6340. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6425.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6500

Support level: 0.6340, 0.6275

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3255. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction towards the support level 1.3185.

 

Resistance level: 1.3255, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3185, 1.3135

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9915. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9980, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9845

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 56.30. However, MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 57.55, 59.40

Support level: 56.30, 54.85

 

GOLD_ H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1460.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1460.00, 1480.50

Support level: 1437.20, 1403.50

131119 Morning Session Analysis

13 November 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Sterling slumped after job’s data disappoints.

Pound sterling extended its losses on yesterday over the backdrop of bleak economic data from the United Kingdom. According to Office for National Statistics, UK’s Average Earnings Index +Bonus came in at 3.6% for the month of September, missing economists’ forecast of 3.8%. Similarly, Claimant Count Change for the month of October increases to 33,000 individuals, significantly higher as compared to forecast of 24,200 individuals. Both data has dialed down some positive sentiment upon the sterling which initiated a brief selloff. However, losses on the sterling remains limited after Brexit Party head Nigel Farage declared that his party will not contest for any seats currently held by the Conservative Party during UK’s general election on 12th December. The refusal to do so has increased the chances of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to secure and execute Brexit withdrawal agreement if Conservative Party wins the upcoming election. On the other hand, US dollar was traded higher on yesterday following a slump in other major currencies. However, traders remained cautious as they await further updates with regards to US-China trade negotiation. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.15% to 98.15 while pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.01% to 1.2850.

 

As for commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat near $56.75 per barrel. Oil prices continues to trade within a tight range as investors wait for further signals in the market with regards to US-China trade negotiation as well as weekly crude inventory reports from the US Energy Information Administration. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.03% to $1,456.56 a troy ounce due to stronger greenback.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

00:00 (14th)          USD                        Fed Chair Powell Speaks

 


 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.7% 1.6%
21:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% 0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to experience technical correction for short-term.

 

Resistance level: 98.20, 98.55

Support level: 98.10, 97.80

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat near the support level of 1.2820. However, MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3035

Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support of 1.1010. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to experience technical correction in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1085, 1.1145

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0965

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from 109.30. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 108.75.

 

Resistance level: 109.30, 109.70

Support level: 108.75, 108.45

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6815, 0.6780

 

NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.6325. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6340, 0.6370

Support level: 0.6325, 0.6310

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3285

Support level: 1.3200, 1.3125

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9915.

 

Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9965

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9885

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance near 57.40. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend losses in short-term, towards the direction of 56.55.

 

Resistance level: 56.95, 57.40

Support level: 56.55, 55.75

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior close below 1483.60. However, MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to experience technical correction for short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1483.60, 1515.00

Support level: 1442.90, 1410.00

121119 Afternoon Session Analysis

12 November 2019                            Afternoon Session Analysis

 

USD/JPY remains in bid despite trade concern.

The Japanese Yen which traded against the dollar have fell during late Asian session as trade progress between U.S and China and political unrest in Hong Kong continue to challenge the risk tone for traders in the market. Currently, markets continue to favor the greenback although U.S President Donald Trump have recently denied that he agreed to remove tariff on Chinese goods as part of a deal. Besides that, remarks from Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe also further increase the weakness upon Japanese Yen as his comments support the need for a budget to assist economic recovery, which have decreased the appeal of Japanese Yen against the dollar as safe-haven status. On top of that, the risk safety appeal of the greenback was also boosted by a surge of unrest in Hong Kong following its police used live ammunition on protesters who had tried to block roads and delay trains during the morning commute. At the time of writing, USD/JPY rose 0.08% to 109.11 while dollar index also climbs 0.03% to 98.02.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fell 0.14% to $56.78 per barrel at the time of writing as the ongoing uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks continue to weigh down the market. Besides that, Saudi Arabia have also reinforced concerns about oversupply, diminishing further appeal for the commodity. Next, gold price slips 0.05% to $1456.43 a troy ounce as of writing following dollar strength backed by geopolitical uncertainty.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 3.8% 3.8%
17:30 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Oct) 21.1K 24.2K
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) -22.8 -13.2

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 97.75. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 98.35.

 

Resistance level: 98.35, 98.80

Support level: 97.75, 97.30

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of downward channel. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the top level of downward channel.

 

Resistance level: 1.3035, 1.3170

Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1010. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1075.

 

Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1170

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0930

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 108.85. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 109.25.

 

Resistance level: 109.25, 109.80

Support level: 108.85, 108.40

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 0.6835. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6835.

 

Resistance level: 0.6880, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6835, 0.6795

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6325. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6365, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6325, 0.6285

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3210. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3275.

 

Resistance level: 1.3275, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short term technical correction toward the lower level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9945, 1.0005

Support level: 0.9885, 0.9810

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 56.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 56.80.

 

Resistance level: 56.80, 57.80

Support level: 56.25, 55.40

 

GOLD_ H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1452.70. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1461.00.

 

Resistance level: 1461.00, 1467.35

Support level: 1452.70, 1443.75

121119 Morning Session Analysis

12 November 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

Pound sterling rebounds over positive developments.

Pound Sterling extended gains after Brexit Party claimed that they would not contest previously Conservative held seats in the UK’s upcoming election. The move increases the chances for the Conservative Party to gain a majority at the polls ahead of the 12th December 2019 election, and consequently able to implement the EU withdrawal agreement which secured last month by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In addition, by increasing the likelihood of a clear victory for the Conservatives, the political uncertainty could be reduced, which further sparkled the demand for the Pound Sterling. However, gains experienced by sterling was limited following the release of bleak economic data from the UK region. According to Office for National Statistics, U.K Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 0.3%, weaker than the economist forecast at 0.4%. Meanwhile the U.K Manufacturing Production for last month came in at -0.4%, lower than the market forecast at -0.3%. Both data spurred concerns over slowing economic momentum, which may prompt a further rate cut in future. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated by 0.03% to 1.2855. On the other hand, Dollar index slumped 0.14% to 98.00 amid trade uncertainty after US President Donald Trump said on last Friday that he had not agreed to end tariffs on Chinese goods as part of a trade deal.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price experienced some selloff amid trade uncertainty. Trade war risks spurred higher pessimism among investors as it may possibly increase the risk for global economic slowdown, weighing the demand for crude oil in the future. On the other hand, gold price surged yesterday due to weaker greenback and trade pessimism outlook. As of writing, crude oil price depreciated by 0.23% to $56.77 per barrel while gold price fell 0.02% to $1455.20 per troy ounces.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Sep) 3.8% 3.8%
17:30 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Oct) 21.1K 24.2K
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) -22.8 -13.2

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 98.20. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 98.20, 98.50

Support level: 97.85, 97.55

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2760. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2980.

 

Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3180

Support level: 1.2760, 1.2560

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1010. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1075.

 

Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1165

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0955

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 109.25. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 109.25, 109.90

Support level: 107.95, 107.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 0.6835. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905

Support level: 0.6835, 0.6805

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6345. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6385.

 

Resistance level: 0.6385, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6345, 0.6315

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3210. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3260.

 

Resistance level: 1.3260, 1.3310

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9950. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9905.

 

Resistance level: 0.9950, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9870

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 58.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 56.05.

 

Resistance level: 58.05, 59.45

Support level: 56.05, 53.90

 

GOLD_ Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1481.35. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1442.40.

 

Resistance level: 1481.35, 1508.21

Support level: 1442.40, 1412.20

 

111119 Afternoon Session Analysis

11 November 2019                            Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Dollar held gains as market await more clarity.

The dollar index which measured against a basket of six major currency pairs continue to hold its ground during late Asian session while investors are awaiting for further confirmation from U.S President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Following recent fresh doubt from U.S over the progress of trade talk between U.S and China, investors are now awaiting for more clarification from Trump regarding the trade deal as U.S President Donald Trump is planned to give a speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday. At the same time, investors will also be focusing on Powell speech later this week for further confirmation of its monetary plans. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.15. On the other hand, GBP/USD slips 0.05% to 1.2788 as of writing amid Brexit and uncertainty. Economy in U.K has lost its momentum this year and hurt by a global downturn due to the U.S.-China trade war as well as increased uncertainty over its exit from the European Union. Market will now awaiting for GDP data that is due to be release on Monday for further direction.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price have fell 1.03% to $56.77 at the time of writing as uncertainty in trade deal have renewed investor’s caution in the market. Following the two biggest crude oil consumer as well as the biggest economies in the world, the ongoing trade war prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. On the other hand, gold price recovers 0.34% to $1463.36 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid uncertainty in trade progress between U.S and China are currently fueling the demand for the safe-haven gold.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -0.2% 0.4%
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.7% -0.3%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 98.25. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the dollar to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 97.60.

 

Resistance level: 98.25, 98.90

Support level: 97.60, 96.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the support level 1.2795. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2970.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3095

Support level: 1.2795, 1.2690

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1060. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the current resistance level 1.1060.

 

Resistance level: 1.1060, 1.1170

Support level: 1.0990, 1.0925

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 108.85. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 109.40, 109.90

Support level: 108.85, 108.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat after breakout below the previous support level 0.6875. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair may experience a technical correction in short term towards the current resistance level 0.6875.

 

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6925

Support level: 0.6810, 0.6725

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6350. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6350, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6285, 0.6210

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1.3235. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3300

Support level: 1.3185, 1.3135

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.9980. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.9915.

 

Resistance level: 0.9980, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9845

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 57.55. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 56.30.

 

Resistance level: 57.55, 59.40

Support level: 56.30, 54.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price have traded lower while currently testing the support level 1460.00. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1480.50

 

Resistance level: 1480.50, 1497.00

Support level: 1460.00, 1437.20

 

111119 Morning Session Analysis

11 November 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Trump spurs higher uncertainty in the market.

US dollar extended its gains last Friday, touching three-week high against other major currencies following higher risk appetite for higher yielding assets in the market. As of writing, the dollar index notched up 0.26% to 98.16. Last Friday, US President Donald Trump spurred higher uncertainty upon US-China trade resolution after he said that he has not agreed to roll back tariffs. His comment came a day after US and China reportedly agreed to roll back tariffs on each other in order to achieve phase one of trade deal. However, a separate report also contradicts with the news whereby the rollback aces fierce internal opposition within the White House and other advisors. Overall, market sentiment remains supportive for risky assets as efforts has been made by both countries in order to achieve a trade agreement which will substantially diminishes recessive risk upon the global economy. On the other hand, pair of USD/CAD ticked up 0.01% to 1.3229. Canadian dollar undergoes further selloff after Canada’s job market data stagnated in October, losing 1,800 net positions, missing economists’ forecast of generating 15,900 net positions.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.47% to $57.09 per barrel. Oil futures experienced some selloff pressure as investors began to liquidate their holdings and take profit from the recent rally in oil prices. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.13% to $1,460.37 a troy ounce following rising uncertainty with regards to US-China trade negotiation.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 


 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -0.2% 0.4%
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) -0.7% -0.3%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior close above 98.10. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains, towards the direction of 98.55.

 

Resistance level: 98.55, 99.00

Support level: 98.10, 97.80

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior close below 1.2820. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower, towards the direction of 1.2665.

 

Resistance level: 1.2820, 1.2970

Support level: 1.2665, 1.2510

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support at 1.1010. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1085, 1.1145

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0965

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after closing above 109.30.

 

Resistance level: 109.30, 109.70

Support level: 108.75, 108.45

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6815, 0.6780

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6340. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6270.

 

Resistance level: 0.6340, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6270, 0.6200

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance of 1.3240. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3285

Support level: 1.3200, 1.3125

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior closure above 0.9965. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9965, 0.9940

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from 57.40. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 57.40, 58.15

Support level: 56.95, 55.75

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing at the bottom level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.

 

Resistance level: 1483.60, 1515.00

Support level: 1442.90, 1410.00

 

081119 Afternoon Session Analysis

08 November 2019                           Afternoon Session Analysis

Probability of further rate cut declined.  

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies eked out its previous losses, rose back to three weeks high level. Recent good news showed that US and China are closer to the truce of trade agreement, lifted up the possibility of achieving phase 1 trade deal within a short period. In consequence, easing of trade war has further assure that Federal Reserve (Fed) will cease their rate cut plan while remain its interest rate at 1.75%. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, it shows that the probability of further rate cut has further dropped to 5.9% from previous 8.9% following the optimism news of trade deal from China and US. Moreover, market worries over the risk of slowing down in global growth has reduced as if trade deal can be resolved, performance of both global top economy bodies will turn resilient, and eventually driving the other countries economy upward. As of now, greenback rose 0.01% to 97.95. On the other side, the pair of AUD/USD plunged 0.27% to 0.6875 during Asian trading session amid Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) withhold dovish tone toward the future growth prospect of Australia. Based on the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, RBA has slashed their GDP forecast from 2.75% to 2.5% for the year through June 2020 despite there is sign showing that Australian economy is gradually exiting out from economic downturn.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price fall 0.33% to $56.80 per barrel despite recent news showed that China and US may reaching a deal soon. Crude oil market is still remain gloomy as rising of stockpile in US crude oil inventories continue to weigh on this black commodity. Besides, gold inched up 0.06% to $1468.70 a troy ounce after traders chose to take profit at the psychological price level near $1460.00.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21.30 CAD – Employment Change 53.7K 15.9K
23.00 USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 95.5 95.9
02.00 (9th) CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 691

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 97.95. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 97.95, 98.20

Support level: 97.60, 97.35

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2980. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 1.2780.

 

Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3180

Support level: 1.2780, 1.2580

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support at 1.1075. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1010.

 

Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1165

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0955

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.30. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 109.30, 110.00

Support level: 108.55, 107.90

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6880. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6920

Support level: 0.6880, 0.6855

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6360. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6385, 0.6410

Support level: 0.6360, 0.6340

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the previous support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3195.

 

Resistance level: 1.3195, 1.3245

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9945. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9945, 1.0035

Support level: 0.9890, 0.9845

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 57.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 57.00, 58.15

Support level: 55.85, 54.70

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1474.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1442.00.

 

Resistance level: 1474.75, 1508.80

Support level: 1442.00, 1411.70

 

 

081119 Morning Session Analysis

8 November 2019                           Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar inches up on trade deal progress.

U.S dollar which traded against a basket of six major currency rivals have edge higher on early Asian session as market continue to cheer on progress of trade talk. According to the latest report, Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Feng stated that Beijing and Washington have agreed to phase out tariffs imposed during their 16-month-long trade war. Canceling tariffs is vital to the phase one trade agreement, which both sides have agreed to do as negotiation progress is made, he added. He also stated that the trade war started with tariffs and should end with the cancellation of tariffs. The ongoing positive progress of trade talk between both countries have increase hope that the two sides may sign a trade deal in the coming months, thus continue to help fuel to demand for the greenback. On the other hand, the pound sterling have suffered a huge sell-off after BoE interest rate decision. The Bank of England left its key rate unchanged at 0.75% on Thursday, but cut its growth forecasts which expecting the U.K. to grow at half of the rate of 2018 due to slowing growth across the globe and the prolonged uncertainty over Brexit. The bank also hinted that it may cut interest rates soon if that uncertainty continues to depress output. At the time of writing, dollar index soars 0.18% to 97.91 while GBP/USD fell 0.04% to 1.2815.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.09% to $57.05 per barrel at the time of writing following positive progress between U.S and China. As Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Feng said earlier on Thursday that Beijing and Washington have agreed to phase out their more than a yearlong of tariffs, the better headline have created an underlying support for the commodity. On the other hand, gold price plummeted 0.15% to $1467.53 a troy ounce as of writing amid increasing risk-appetite in the market due to Chinese Commerce Minister Gao Feng’s remarks.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 


 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21.30 CAD – Employment Change 53.7K 15.9K
23.00 USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) 95.5 95.9
02.00 (9th) CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 691

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 97.70. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 97.70.

 

Resistance level: 98.35, 98.85

Support level: 97.70, 96.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel while currently testing near the support level 1.2805. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2970.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3095

Support level: 1.2805, 1.2690

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.1060. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to undergo a technical correction in short term towards the current resistance level 1.1060.

 

Resistance level: 1.1060, 1.1170

Support level: 1.0990, 1.0925

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 109.35. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower in short term as a technical correction towards the support level 108.85.

 

Resistance level: 109.35, 109.90

Support level: 108.85, 108.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remain traded a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 0.6875. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound in short term towards the resistance level 0.6925.

 

Resistance level: 0.6925, 0.6995

Support level: 0.6875, 0.6810

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6350. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6425.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6500

Support level: 0.6350, 0.6285

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3185. However, MACD which display bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3135.

 

Resistance level: 1.3185, 1.3235

Support level: 1.3135, 1.3065

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9915. However, MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the support level 0.9915.

 

Resistance level: 0.9980, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9915, 0.9845

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remain traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 57.55. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement in short term towards the support level 56.30.

 

Resistance level: 57.55, 59.40

Support level: 56.30, 54.85

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price have traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1480.50. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 1460.00.

 

Resistance level: 1480.50, 1497.00

Support level: 1460.00, 1437.20

 

071119 Afternoon Session Analysis

7 November 2019                              Afternoon Session Analysis

Brexit deadlock remain while market eyes on BoE policy.

Pound sterling retraced from its two weeks high level as market lingering with doubts about the Bank of England (BoE) respond toward the uncertainties exerted by Brexit issue. As of now, majority of the market participants expect BoE will have no changes in their monetary policy on today’s meeting, where to leave the interest rate at current rate 0.75%. This is because uncertainty over around Brexit issue has left a strong mark on UK economic data, affecting the economy growth negatively. In overall, market sentiment toward this single currency is still remain tepid as market are still awaiting for the results of general election on 12th December. The election will determine whether Boris Johnson party able to capture a majority in parliament and sign a final deal with European Union. As of writing, the pair of GBP/USD surged 0.04% to 1.2845. On the other hand, greenback which act as major currency rose 0.02% to 97.80 as recent news shows that Trump and Xi has delayed to December as both countries premiers are still deciding the terms and venue of the trade deal. According to US official, the possible location of next meeting is London where two leaders could meet after NATO summit.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price inched down 0.14% to $56.25 per barrel after the phase 1 trade deal between US and China has delayed to December. Thus, markets are still remain pessimistic toward the outlook of crude oil demand as trade war remain unsolved. Besides, gold price rose 0.04% to $1490.90 a troy ounce amid dampening of market risk sentiment.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     GBP                                        BoE Inflation Report

20:00                     GBP                                        BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

20:30                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Carney Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 0.75% 0.75%
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 218K 215K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 97.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 97.95.

 

Resistance level: 97.95, 98.40

Support level: 97.55, 96.90

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2980. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2780.

 

Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3180

Support level: 1.2780, 1.2560

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1075. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1010.

 

Resistance level: 1.1075, 1.1165

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0955

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 109.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.90

Support level: 107.95, 107.00

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6875. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6810.

 

Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6930

Support level: 0.6810, 0.6755

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6345. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6390, 0.6430

Support level: 0.6345, 0.6310

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3210.

 

Resistance level: 1.3210,1.3260

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9905. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.9950.

 

Resistance level: 0.9950, 1.0025

Support level: 0.9905, 0.9870

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 56.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest its price to extend its losses toward support level at 56.05.

 

Resistance level: 56.85, 57.45

Support level: 56.05, 55.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1491.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1491.65, 1497.05

Support level: 1486.40, 1481.30

071119 Morning Session Analysis

7 November 2019                              Morning Session Analysis

 

Canadian dollar slumps as data disappoints.

Canadian dollar extended its losses following the release of bearish economic data from yesterday. According to Ivey, its PMI reading which gauge activity level of purchasing managers slumped to 48.2 for the month of October, missing economists’ forecast for a rise to 49.3. Recently, Bank of Canada expresses further dovishness during their policy meeting as they perceive increasing risks and uncertainty due to ongoing trade conflict in the market. As such, the bearish data from yesterday has further affirmed such signals which may eventually lead to further rate cuts if future economic data from Canada remains bleak. On the other hand, dollar index continues to be traded within a tight range due to the lack of major economic data from the United States. Investors remains fixated upon US-China trade negotiation developments as well as future economic data releases from the region in order to gauge US dollar’s near-term trend direction. As of writing, pair of USD/CAD rose 0.04% to 1.3185 while the dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.73.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat at around $56.31 per barrel. Overnight, oil prices slumped sharply after Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil stocks increased by 7.929 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasted reading of 1.515 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price was flat at around $1,490.37 a troy ounce while market participants wait for more signals in the FX market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:00                     GBP                         BoE Inflation Report

20:00                     GBP                         BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

20:30                     GBP                         BoE Gov Carney Speaks

 


 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 0.75% 0.75%
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 218K 215K

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near 97.80. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggest the index to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 97.80, 98.10

Support level: 97.60, 97.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3035

Support level: 1.2820, 1.2665

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower after closing below 1.1085. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.1010.

 

Resistance level: 1.1085, 1.1145

Support level: 1.1010, 1.0965

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retrace from its higher levels. MACD which formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 109.30, 109.70

Support level: 108.75, 108.45

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6910, 0.6930

Support level: 0.6875, 0.6815

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6340.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6495

Support level: 0.6340, 0.6270

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 1.3200. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3200,1.3240

Support level: 1.3125, 1.3000

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 0.9940. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9940, 0.9965

Support level: 0.9885, 0.9840

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior closure below 56.70. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 56.70, 57.30

Support level: 55.55, 54.45

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1496.00, 1511.00

Support level: 1484.05, 1477.00

061119 Afternoon Session Analysis

06 November 2019                            Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Dollar slips after skyrocketed to new high.

Dollar index which measured its value against a basket of six major currencies fall after hitting the highest level in three weeks amid economic data from US region unexpectedly rise sharply. According to the Institute for Supply Management, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.7, stronger than previous month reading of 52.6 while far ahead of economist’s consensus at 53.6. This data showed that US economic activity is growing robustly and even faster than expected expansion pace, damped the market expectation on further rate cut in next Fed meeting. However, greenback sentiments has turned tepid now as market participants are cautious toward the progress of trade talk, geopolitical risk and the risk of slowing down in global growth. During Asian trading session, dollar index plummeted 0.09% to 97.65. On the other hand, the pair of NZD/USD inched down 0.03% to 0.6370 following downbeat economic data shows New Zealand labor market has weakened. The employment change in New Zealand has declined from 0.8 to 0.2%, job creation has fall significantly while lifted up the expectation of rate cut in upcoming RBNZ meeting.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.54% to $56.90 per barrel amid recent data showed a stockpile in US crude oil inventories. According to API data, inventories level jumped to 4.260M from previous month -0.708M. On the other hand, gold price quoted up 0.18% to $1486.00 a troy ounce amid weakening of greenback.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                              GBP                                        Autumn Budget

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
23.00 CAD – Ivey PMI (Oct) 49.3 48.7
23.30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 5.702M 1.515M

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 97.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gain toward the resistance level at 97.95.

 

Resistance level: 97.95, 98.40

Support level: 97.55, 96.90

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2980. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2780.

 

Resistance level: 1.2980, 1.3180

Support level: 1.2780, 1.2625


EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1075. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1125, 1.1175

Support level: 1.1075, 1.1010


USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.05. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 109.05, 109.90

Support level: 107.95, 107.00

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6875. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.7020

Support level: 0.6875, 0.6810


NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6390. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6390, 0.6430

Support level: 0.6345, 0.6315


USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3145. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3210.

 

Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3260

Support level: 1.3145, 1.3085


USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9885. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gain toward resistance level at 0.9940.

 

Resistance level: 0.9940, 1.0000

Support level: 0.9885, 0.9840


CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 57.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 57.00, 58.25

Support level: 54.90, 53.25


GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1483.55. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1493.70.

 

Resistance level: 1493.70, 1501.60

Support level: 1483.55, 1476.20