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240122 Afternoon Session Analysis

24 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound dipped amid bearish data.

The Pound Sterling slumped over the backdrop of bearish economic data on last Friday, dialed down the market optimism toward the economic progression in the United Kingdom. According to Office for National Statistics, UK Retail Sales for last month notched down significantly from the previous reading of 1.0% to -3.7%, missing the market forecast at -0.6% due to the spiking numbers of the Omicron variant continue to weigh down the economic momentum in the United Kingdom. Nonetheless, economist still predicted that the Bank of England was still likely to increase the interest rates for a second time in two months in February in order to combat the high inflation rate. According to the latest inflation data, British consumer price inflation had hit a nearly 30-year high of 5.4% for the year of 2021. Rising energy prices and labor cost due to supply constraint had continue to increase the inflation risk in future. Nonetheless, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the monetary policy decision to gauge the likelihood movement for the Pound Sterling. As of writing, GBP/USD appreciated by 0.02% to 1.3556.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 1.32% to $86.56 per barrel as of writing amid rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East had heightened concerns for the supply disruption in future, while OPEC and its allies continued to struggle to raise their output due to lack of capacity. On the other hand, the gold price was traded flat at $1835.75 per troy ounces as of writing as market participants are still eyeing on the monetary policy decision from Federal Reserve before entering the gold market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 57.4 57.0
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI 53.6
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 57.9 57.7
17:30 GBP – Services PMI 53.6 53.9

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 95.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.80

Support level: 94.55, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3595. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3595, 1.3715

Support level: 1.3450, 1.3340

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1380. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1235.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1530

Support level: 1.1235, 1.1105

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 113.65. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 114.95, 116.25

Support level: 113.65, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7205. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7125.

 

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7125, 0.7090

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6710. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2475. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2625.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9095. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 83.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 86.60

 

Resistance level: 86.60, 88.60

Support level: 83.15, 79.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1828.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1846.45, 1856.00

Support level: 1828.00, 1811.35

 

240122 Morning Session Analysis

24 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar was traded flat, investors are eyeing on FOMC meeting.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency slumped amid technical correction while investors are still waiting for crucial Federal Reserve meeting in this week for more clarity on the outlook for rate hikes in short-term basis. The expectation for the Fed to tighten the monetary policy at faster pace than previously anticipated had caused the US Treasury yield to increase significantly earlier last week. Market participants are pricing in as many as four rate hikes in the year of 2022 while expecting the Fed to start trimming its $8 trillion-plus balance sheet within months. Contractionary monetary policy as well as rate hike in future will diminish the money circulation in the US financial market, which spurring bullish momentum on the US Dollar. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.10% to 95.65.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.33% to $85.45 per barrel as of writing. The oil market edged higher following the U.S energy firms this week cut oil rigs for the first time in 13 weeks. According to Baker Hughes, U.S. oil rigs fell by one to 491 this week. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.26% to $1834.75 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 57.4 57.0
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI 53.6
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 57.9 57.7  
17:30 GBP – Services PMI 53.6 53.9  

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 95.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.80

Support level: 94.55, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3595. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3450.

 

Resistance level: 1.3595, 1.3715

Support level: 1.3450, 1.3340

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1380. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1235.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1530

Support level: 1.1235, 1.1105

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 113.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 114.95, 116.25

Support level: 113.65, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7205. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7125.

 

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7125, 0.7090

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6710. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2475. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2625.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9095. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 83.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 86.60

 

Resistance level: 86.60, 88.60

Support level: 83.15, 79.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1828.00. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1846.45, 1856.00

Support level: 1828.00, 1811.35

 

210122 Afternoon Session Analysis

21 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

US Dollar dived following US Treasury yield eased.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs slumped over the backdrop of a string economic data. According to Department of Labor, US Initial Jobless Claims notched up significantly from the previous reading of 231K to 286K, missing the market forecast at 220K. Besides, US Existing Home Sales came in at 6.18M, which also fared worse than market expectation at 6.44M. As both crucial economic data came in at negative reading, which dialing down the market optimism toward the economic progression in the United States while reducing the odds for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rate. The US Treasury yields retreated from multi-year high, dragging down the appeal for the US Dollar. Nonetheless, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of monetary policy statement from Fed to receive further trading signal. As of writing, the Dollar Index depreciated by 0.05% to 95.70.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price depreciated by 0.93% to $84.35 per barrel as of writing. The crude oil price edged lower amid the profit-taking following the released of bearish US Inventory data. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US Crude Oil Inventories came in at 0.515M, missing the market forecast at -0.938M. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.07% to $1840.80 per troy ounces as of writing amid weakening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.40% -0.60%
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.30% 1.30%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 95.60. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 95.75, 96.80

Support level: 94.55, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3595. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3715, 1.3840

Support level: 1.3595, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1380. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1530

Support level: 1.1235, 1.1105

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 113.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 114.95, 116.25

Support level: 113.75, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 07205. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.7125.

 

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7125, 0.7000

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6710. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2475. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2625.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9180. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 82.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 84.45.

 

Resistance level: 84.45, 86.60

Support level: 82.70, 81.35

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded within a range while currently testing the resistance level at 1846.45. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1846.45, 1867.10

Support level: 1828.00, 1811.35

 

210122 Morning Session Analysis

21 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

Euro tumbles as doves emerges.

Euro halts is recent recovery and tumbles further after European Central Bank reemphasize their dovish views upon recent inflation appreciation. According to meeting minutes, several ECB members has voiced out their views that current appreciation in inflation is temporary and will likely depreciate throughout the year of 2022. Their view came in as market is previously speculating for a change in monetary policy strategy after EU inflation rose to 5.0%, its highest level in 30 years. Following the release of minutes, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasize that it is too early to initiate a rate hike as it may jeopardize economic recovery momentum. She also reiterates the differences of economic fundamental in between US and EU and Federal Reserve could initiate a rate hike earlier due to strong economic recovery. As of writing, EUR/USD was down 0.02% to 1.1312.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price was down by 0.58% to $84.15 per barrel following the release of US inventory data. Last week, crude oil inventory was up by 0.5 million barrels, significantly higher than forecasted reading to decrease by 0.9 million barrels. Likewise, gold price was down by 0.01% to $1,838.10 a troy ounce due to a rebound in US dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
14:00 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.40% -0.60%
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 1.30% 1.30%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.80, 96.15

Support level: 95.45, 94.95

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3640, 1.3690

Support level: 1.3585, 1.3510

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1440

Support level: 1.1310, 1.1260

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 114.00, 114.35

Support level: 113.70, 113.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7270, 0.7335

Support level: 0.7210, 0.7125

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6770, 0.6820

Support level: 0.6735, 0.6700

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2550, 1.2630

Support level: 1.2440, 1.2300

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher after breaking the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9170, 0.9200

Support level: 0.9140, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 84.60, 87.40

Support level: 82.65, 80.15

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1850.00, 1873.80

Support level: 1830.20, 1812.80

 

200122 Afternoon Session Analysis

20 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Aussie surged amid resilient job data.

The Australia Dollar surged over the backdrop of upbeat economic data from Australia region. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia Employment Change came in at 64,800 in December, exceeding the market forecast at 43,300 and adding to November’s record jump of 366,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from the previous reading of 4.6% to 4.2% in November, the lowest reading since August 2008. As both crucial economic data fared better than expectation, dialled up the market optimism toward the economic progression in Australia. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the Australian Dollar was limited by the spiking numbers of Omicron variant, which spooking consumers away from shops and restaurants. As of writing, AUD/USD appreciated by 0.38% to 0.7240.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.90% to $86.45 per barrel as of writing. The oil market touched tis highest level since October 2014 following the International Energy Agency claimed that the supply outlook for the oil industry is tighter than previously thought while the demand remained resilient amid easing symptoms of the Omicron variant. On the other hand, the gold price surged 0.10% to $1839.70 per troy ounces as of writing amid rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine had stoked a shift in sentiment toward the safe-haven asset such as gold.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 5.00% 5.00%
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 230K 220K
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 15.4 20
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec) 6.46M 6.43M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 95.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 95.60, 96.80

Support level: 94.55, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3595. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3715, 1.3840

Support level: 1.3595, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1380. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1530

Support level: 1.1235, 1.1105

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 114.10. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 116.25, 117.50

Support level: 114.10, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.7205. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.7270.

 

Resistance level: 0.7270, 0.7335

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7125

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6710.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2475. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9180. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 84.45. However, MACD which illustrated increasing baerish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 88.60, 91.70

Support level: 84.45, 79.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1830.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1849.20.

 

Resistance level: 1849.20, 1867.10

Support level: 1830.55, 1786.30

 

200122 Morning Session Analysis

20 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

 

UK inflation at its highest since 1992.

UK inflation appreciates at its fastest pace in 30 years despite rising coronavirus cases during last December. According to UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS), Consumer Price Index rose for the fifth month with 5.4%, its highest level since March 1992. The rise in inflation is mainly attributed to the rising cost of commodities such as gasoline as well as food and non-alcoholic drinks. During a speech, Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey commented that commodity prices are “sticky” and that it might take a longer period of time to retrace from its recent high levels. Moreover, Bailey emphasized that rising tension in between Russia and Ukraine may help propel commodity prices further, with the market speculating for a possible deficit in supply if war breaks out. Rising inflation in the UK has also sparked discussion of a possible rate hike as early as March from the Bank of England. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.05% to 1.3609.

 

As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.43% to $85.07 per barrel following bearish inventory data from the US. According to American Petroleum Institute, last week’s oil inventory was up by 1.4 million barrels, missing economist’s forecast for a draw of 1.1 million barrels. On the other hand, rising tension in between Russia and Ukraine has provided further support for gold price. During Asian trading session, gold price rose 0.02% to $1,838.94 a troy ounce.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                   Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 5.00% 5.00%
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 230K 220K
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) 15.4 20
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec) 6.46M 6.43M

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearsih signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.95, 96.30

Support level: 95.45, 95.00

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3630, 1.3690

Support level: 1.3570, 1.3510

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1440

Support level: 1.1310, 1.1260

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following retracement from 114.55. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 114.55, 115.50

Support level: 113.50, 112.75

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7140

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6740, 0.6700

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2485.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9165, 0.9190

Support level: 0.9130, 0.9100

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after breaking its support level.

 

Resistance level: 87.40, 89.50

Support level: 84.60, 82.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1850.00, 1873.80

Support level: 1830.20, 1812.80

190122 Afternoon Session Analysis

19 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Pound slumped amid political uncertainty.

The Pound Sterling slumped amid rising political tensions in the United Kingdom, which dialing down the market optimism toward the economic progression. According to ABC News, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced new calls for his resignation over a party he and his wife attended with Downing Street staff in May 2020, when the country was still under lockdown. Despite Boris Johnson had apologized for violating the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the Covid-19 pandemic, the apology still did little to wave off calls to resign from opposition politician party. Nonetheless, the losses experienced by the Pound Sterling was limited amid positive sentiment around improving trends recently in Covid-19 infections rates and hospital admission. According to the latest NHS data, Covid-related hospital admission are failing in every region of England. As of writing, GBP/USD surged 0.10% to 1.3606.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.05% to $86.40 per barrel as of writing. The oil price extends its gains while reaching seven-year high amid an outage on a pipeline from Iraq to Turkey spurred concerns over the supply disruption for the crude oil commodity. According to Reuters, Turkey’s state pipeline operators Botas claimed on Tuesday that the explosion on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline had affected the oil export from Iraq to Turkish port. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.04% to $1813.10 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

22:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 5.10% 5.20%
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.717M 1.701M
21:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.60%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 95.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 95.60, 96.80

Support level: 94.55, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3595. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3715, 1.3840

Support level: 1.3595, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1380. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.1235.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1530

Support level: 1.1235, 1.1105

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 114.10. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 116.25, 117.50

Support level: 114.10, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.7205. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7205, 0.7270

Support level: 0.7125, 0.7000

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6710.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2475. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9180. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 84.45. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 88.60, 91.70

Support level: 84.45, 79.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1808.95. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1830.55, 1849.20

Support level: 1808.95, 1786.30

 

190122 Morning Session Analysis

19 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

 

US Treasury hits 2 years high.

US dollar may be in run for its best week yet in 2022 as investors gears up for upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting due next week. Over the recent weeks, several Fed officials such as John Williams dan Mary Daly grumbles over high inflationary pressure and calls for more action to be done in order to curb its appreciation. Recent rise in Omicron has continued to place pressure upon global supply chain and Fed officials expects inflation to rise further due to scarcity of certain materials or goods. They also commented that current monetary policy approach is inadequate and urged for a change in order to control price of goods. Hawkish comments provided by several Fed members has sparked speculation that Fed may take into account of adopting a different strategy during its upcoming policy meeting. Thus, the speculation has led to a rise in US Treasury yield, peaking at 2 years high around 1.884%. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.03% to 95.65.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price skyrocketed 1.08% to $86.20 per barrel following geopolitical tension in the Middle East. According to Reuters, Houthi group has launched an attack on UAE’s oil truck, causing 3 casualties. They also warned to launch more attacks on UAE’s oil facilities in the future which may jeopardize the country’s oil supply in the near-term. On the other hand, gold price notched down 0.01% to $1,814.12 a troy ounce due to rising US Treasury yield and US dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

22:15                     GBP                                        BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Dec) 5.10% 5.20%
21:30 USD – Building Permits (Dec) 1.717M 1.701M
21:30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.60%

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.95, 96.30

Support level: 95.45, 95.00

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3630, 1.3690

Support level: 1.3570, 1.3510

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1380, 1.1440

Support level: 1.1310, 1.1260

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following rebound from 113.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in mid-term.

 

Resistance level: 115.40, 116.25

Support level: 114.55, 113.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7140

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6830

Support level: 0.6740, 0.6700

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2485.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout at 0.9165. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9190, 0.9200

Support level: 0.9165, 0.9130

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above 84.60. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 87.40, 89.50

Support level: 84.60, 82.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below 1812.80.

 

Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00

Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60

180122 Afternoon Session Analysis

18 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar surged amid rising US yield.

The Dollar Index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs remains bullish amid investors continue to speculate the higher odds for the Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy. Contractionary monetary policy would reduce the money circulation in the US market, which diminishing the inflation risk in future while spurring bullish momentum for the US Dollar. On the other hand, the EUR/USD was traded flat amid lack of major economic data for euro zone this week. Though, investors would remain their focus toward the European Central Bank’s meeting minutes on Thursday to gauge the likelihood monetary policy decision in future. Earlier, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde claimed that they bank is ready to take any measures necessary to stabilize its inflation toward their 2% target. As of writing, the Dollar Index surged 0.05% to 95.20 while the pair of EUR/USD surged 0.11% to 1.1420.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price appreciated by 0.98% to $85.20 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extend is gains amid worries about possible supply disruption following Yemen’s Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates, escalating geopolitics tensions between the Iran-aligned group and Saudi Arabian-led coalition. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.10% to $1,822.50 per troy ounces as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Outlook Report

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 4.90% 4.20%
15:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) -49.8K -38.6K
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 29.9 32.7

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 94.55. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 95.50.

 

Resistance level: 95.50, 96.80

Support level: 94.55, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3715. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3595.

 

Resistance level: 1.3715, 1.3840

Support level: 1.3595, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1380. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1680

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1235

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 114.10. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 116.25.

 

Resistance level: 116.25, 117.50

Support level: 114.10, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7205. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.7270, 0.7335

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7125

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6710.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2475. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9095. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 84.40. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 84,80, 86.15

Support level: 81.70, 78.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1830.55. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1830.55, 1849.20

Support level: 1808.95, 1786.30

 

180122 Morning Session Analysis

18 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

 

Is Brexit beneficial to UK?

Pound sterling droops further as investors reassess the possible outcome from recent Brexit talks in between UK and EU. While UK and EU kickstarted their new rounds of talk this week with Foreign Minister Liz Truss heading the team, investors digest a recent report that laid out woes among UK business owners. According to a survey conducted by One World Express, 73% of entrepreneurs says that their business has seen zero benefits from UK’s departure from EU. A quarter of UK business owners was significantly impacted by Brexit last year where one in three business experienced difficulties to secure working visas for EU based employees in 2021. In addition, 43% of UK business faced supply chain issues as EU tightens up their custom checks which may require extensive paperwork and longer hours of processing. If recent talks in between UK and EU failed to garner any positive outcome, UK businesses may face greater hurdles ahead that may eventually jeopardize UK’s economic momentum. During Asian trading session, pair of GBP/USD was down by 0.01% to 1.3643.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price was up 0.06% to $83.66 per barrel as OPEC-nations struggles to increase their oil production due to infrastructure and capacity limitations. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.01% to $1,818.45 a troy ounce as investors expects more than 90% chance for an interest rate hike from Federal Reserve during March’s policy meeting.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                                   Market                                      Event

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Outlook Report

Tentative                              JPY                                          BoJ Press Conference

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 4.90% 4.20%
15:00 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) -49.8K -38.6K
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) 29.9 32.7

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.45, 95.95

Support level: 95.00, 94.60

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the upward trendline.

 

Resistance level: 1.3690, 1.3745

Support level: 1.3630, 1.3570

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1465

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1310

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following rebound from 113.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher after breaking the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 114.55, 115.40

Support level: 113.50, 112.75

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7140

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6870

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6740

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below 1.2485.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded flat within the range of 0.9130 and 0.9165. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9165, 0.9190

Support level: 0.9130, 0.9100

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 84.60, 87.40

Support level: 82.65, 80.15

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00

Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60

170122 Afternoon Session Analysis

17 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

NZD was traded flat amid mixed China data.

The China-proxy currency New Zealand Dollar was traded flat over the backdrop of mixed economic from China. According to National Bureau of Statistics, China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) year-over-year came in at 4.0%, exceeding the market forecast at 3.6%. Besides, China Industrial Production notched up significantly from the previous reading of 3.8% to 4.3%, which also fared better than the market forecast at 3.6%. Since China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade exceeding NZ$33 billion, the upbeat economic data from China would be dialing up the market optimism toward the economic progression in New Zealand. Nonetheless, the gains experienced by the New Zealand Dollar was limited by negative retail data. China Retail Sales declined significantly from the previous reading of 3.9% to 1.7%, missing the market forecast at 3.7%. As of writing, NZD/USD appreciated by 0.06% to 0.6800.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price surged 0.05% to $84.15 per barrel as of writing. The oil market extends its gains amid market participants remained optimism that the rapid Covid-19 vaccination rollout around the world would able to increase the market demand for crude oil in future, spurring bullish momentum for this black-commodity. On the other hand, the gold price slumped 0.04% to $1818.70 per barrel as of writing amid strengthening US Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   USD                                        Martin Luther King Jr. Day

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently near the resistance level at 95.50. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 95.50, 96.80

Support level: 94.50, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3715. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3595.

 

Resistance level: 1.3715, 1.3840

Support level: 1.3595, 1.3450

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1380. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1680

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1235

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 114.10. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 116.25, 117.50

Support level: 114.10, 112.85

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7205. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7270, 0.7335

Support level: 0.7205, 0.7125

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6710.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2475. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2625.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2475, 1.2330

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9095. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9270, 0.9345

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 84.80. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 84,80, 90.60

Support level: 79.75, 76.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1830.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 1786.30.

 

Resistance level: 1830.55, 1849.20

Support level: 1786.30, 1762.20

 

170122 Morning Session Analysis

17 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

 

Fed extended its rebound.

US dollar successfully extended its rebound last Friday as a few Federal Reserve officials grumbles over high inflation in the US. According to Fed official John Williams, he expects Omicron to lengthen supply chain issues which in return could drive up the costs of goods and raw materials. However, Williams emphasized that Fed may reduce accommodative monetary policy substantially in order to curb rising inflation in the near-term. He also expects inflation to subside periodically and hovers near their target of 2% in the mid-term. On the other hand, Fed official Mary Daly emphasize the importance to control rising inflation in order to achieve stability and equilibrium in between market supply and demand. Daly reiterates the call to initiate further monetary policy tightening although doing so may jeopardize economic momentum slightly. As of writing, the dollar index ticks up 0.01% to 95.09.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.21% to $83.80 per barrel. Rising geopolitical tension in between Russia and Ukraine has sparked speculation over possible oil supply interruption from the region. On the other hand, gold price notched down 0.08% to $1,817.65 a troy ounce as US dollar extends its bullish momentum.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   USD                       Martin Luther King Jr. Day

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.45, 95.95

Support level: 95.00, 94.1060

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3690, 1.3745

Support level: 1.3630, 1.3570

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1465

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1310

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following rebound from 113.50. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 114.55, 115.40

Support level: 113.50, 112.75

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7225, 0.7280

Support level: 0.7180, 0.7140

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6870

Support level: 0.6780, 0.6740

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish suggests the pair to be traded higher after closing above 1.2545.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9165, 0.9190

Support level: 0.9130, 0.9100

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 84.60, 87.40

Support level: 82.65, 80.15

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower after closing below 1812.80.

 

Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00

Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60

140122 Afternoon Session Analysis

14 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro propels as inflation at 30-years high.

Euro hovers comfortably at two-months high following bullish expectation towards the European Central Bank. As of recent, inflation in the EU zone climbs further, coming in at 30 years high of 5.0%. Rising price of consumer goods has dialed down consumer sentiment, possibly jeopardizing their spending momentum in the long-run. Over the backdrop of rising inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the market to place their confidence upon the central bank to curb rising inflation. On yesterday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos commented that EU’s economy is getting accustomed to rising coronavirus cases as economic momentum remains intact. Guindos also stated that he expects inflation to extend its appreciation due to ongoing supply chain issues and strong demand among consumers. His remark sparked speculation that ECB may change their monetary policy strategy in order to address inflationary issues in the EU. Investors will look forward for the next ECB meeting scheduled later this month. As of writing, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.03% to 1.1469.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price was traded flat around $81.80 per barrel while investors wait for further signals with regards to global oil supply and demand levels. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.23% to $1,825.83 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – GDP (MoM) 0.10%
15:00 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.00% 0.20%
21:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.30% 0.20%
21:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.30% -0.10%
21:30 EUR – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 94.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 94.15.

 

Resistance level: 94.90, 95.50

Support level: 94.15, 93.25

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.3715. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3835.

 

Resistance level: 1.3835, 1.4010

Support level: 1.3715, 1.3595

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.1380. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.1530.

 

Resistance level: 1.1530, 1.1680

Support level: 1.1380, 1.1235

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 114.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 112.85.

 

Resistance level: 114.55, 116.25

Support level: 112.85, 110.90

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7270. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.7335, 0.7425

Support level: 0.7270, 0.7205

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6865, 0.6960

Support level: 0.6710, 0.6570

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2490. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2625, 1.2825

Support level: 1.2490, 1.2330

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9095. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9175, 0.9270

Support level: 0.9095, 0.9035

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 82.90. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 80.20.

 

Resistance level: 82.90, 84.80

Support level: 80.20, 78.10

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1830.55. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1830.55, 1850.40

Support level: 1786.30, 1762.20

 

140122 Morning Session Analysis

14 January 2022                 Morning Session Analysis

 

Fed hawks saves the day.

Greenback successfully rebounds from its low levels after Fed officials gives a rather bullish take on interest rate hike. Last night, US dollar spiked down after 2 recent economic data shows some sign of easing in terms of economic momentum. Both Initial Jobless Claims and PPI came in lower than expected, sending market hopes for a faster monetary policy tightening lower. However, US dollar found some support after Fed official Charles Evans remarked that current US inflation is still “too high”. He commented that the current monetary policy setting is inadequate to stem its rise due to ongoing supply chain issue following the pandemic. Evans stated that while 3 interest rate hikes is suitable, Fed may need to increase it to 4 interest rate hikes if inflationary pressure persists. Following his comments, investors are currently hoping to garner more signals during Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week in order to gauge likelihood of a faster pace of monetary policy tightening. During Asian trading session, the dollar index was up 0.02% to 94.80.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price slumped 0.35% to $81.71 due to profit taking. Likewise, gold price depreciated by 0.03% to $1,820.99 a troy ounce as US dollar rebounds from lower levels.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15:00 GBP – GDP (MoM) 0.10%
15:00 GBP – Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.00% 0.20%
21:30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.30% 0.20%
21:30 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.30% -0.10%
21:30 EUR – ECB President Lagarde Speaks

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.00, 95.45

Support level: 94.60, 94.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish signals suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3745, 1.3810

Support level: 1.3690, 1.3630

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1465, 1.1495

Support level: 1.1440, 1.1380

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following breakout from 114.55. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 114.55, 115.40

Support level: 113.50, 112.75

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following retracement from higher level. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7280, 0.7320

Support level: 0.7225, 0.7180

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6870, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6830, 0.6780

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9130, 0.9165

Support level: 0.9100, 0.9080

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 82.65, 84.60

Support level: 80.15, 77.35

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00

Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60

130122 Afternoon Session Analysis

13 January 2022                 Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Sterling rides high as Omicron fear diminishes.

Pound sterling shines brightly for the past few weeks as investors gauge the possibility if lower economic hurdles from recent Omicron infections. According to recent data, hospitalization risk with Omicron variant is one third that of Delta variant even though daily average cases surpasses 150,000 mark. Likewise, when compared to Delta, Omicron variant’s death rate stays at a low of 3%, significantly milder than previously expected. As UK coronavirus cases surges drastically since late last year, UK government has held off from initiating lockdown, instead looking towards alternatives to contain the spread. Investors speculate that milder than expected Omicron variant while coupled with recent government initiatives may not jeopardize overall economic recovery momentum. Likewise, as UK’s inflation extended its rise due to ongoing supply chain issues, Bank of England is expected to initiate another round of rate hike in the coming months. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.02% to 1.3711.

 

As for commodities, crude oil price depreciates by 0.35% to $82.47 per barrel. Oil prices begins to undergo retracement due to take-profit initiatives among investors following its recent uptrend. On the other hand, gold price was down by 0.14% to $1,824.62 a troy ounce as market expects a 76.2% for an interest rate hike from Federal Reserve in March.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 207K 205K
21:30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.80% 0.40%

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 95.00, 95.45

Support level: 94.60, 94.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3745, 1.3810

Support level: 1.3690, 1.3630

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1.1495, 1.1530

Support level: 1.1440, 1.1380

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower after closing below its support level.

 

Resistance level: 115.40, 116.25

Support level: 114.55, 113.50

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.7320, 0.7370

Support level: 0.7280, 0.7225

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6870, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6830, 0.6780

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower after breaking its support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2545, 1.2620

Support level: 1.2485, 1.2410

 

USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 0.9165, 0.9190

Support level: 0.9130, 0.9100

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to be traded higher after breaking the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 82.65, 84.60

Support level: 80.15, 77.35

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from higher levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term.

 

Resistance level: 1830.20, 1850.00

Support level: 1812.80, 1797.60