Daily Analysis

02 June 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The EURUSD soars despite eurozone inflation dipped.

The pair of the Euro against the dollar index soared despite eurozone inflation showing some sign of price pressure has eased. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), data announced by Eurostat yesterday, was eased from 7.0% to 6.1%, slipped more than market expectations for 6.3%. While the Core goods price index which measures excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco eased to 5.3% from 5.6%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5%. CPI and core CPI data prompted the central bank to pause it’s tightening action for the upcoming monetary policy decision, but central bank governor Christine Lagarde followed with her hawkish statement. In her speech, Lagarde mentioned that inflation in the eurozone was too high and would last for too long, so the European Central Bank decided to further tighten monetary policy until inflation returned to the European Central Bank’s 2% annual target range. On the other hand, the greenback traded under sell-off pressure after the Fed’s member, Patrick Harker recommends a rate paused at the next meeting. With such a backdrop, the dollar weakened and support the Euro. As of writing, the EUR/USD edged up by 0.06% to 1.0768.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices were traded up by 0.66% to $70.56 per barrel as bullish sentiment following the Congress approves the US debt ceiling bill. Besides, gold prices lifted up by 0.26% to $1982.61 per troy ounce as investors eyed non-farm payroll data.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

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Today’s Highlight Events

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Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following the breaks below the previous support level at 103.75. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the index extended its losses toward the support level at 102.85.

Resistance level: 103.75, 104.45

Support level: 102.85, 102.10

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1.2445. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1.2590, 1.2735

Support level: 1.2445, 1.2300

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 139.80. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 138.15.

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6775

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6525

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains towards the resistance level at 0.6120

Resistance level: 0.6120, 0.6195

Support level: 0.6050, 0.5980

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.3515. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1.3515, 1.3590

Support level: 1.3420, 1.3330

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 0.9090. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level at 70.65.

Resistance level: 70.65, 73.20

Support level: 67.00, 63.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level at 1985.50

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15

02 June 2023                       Morning Session Analysis

The dollar plummeted as Fed will likely skip the rate hike in the June meeting.

The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, failed to extend its rally yesterday as the market sentiment continued to be hammered by the Fed’s dovish statement.  Yesterday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said, “It is the time to hit the stop button for at least one meeting.”  The statement was followed by the justification that the current monetary policy will likely do its work in order to cool down inflation back to its long-term target in a timely manner.  However, he also reiterated that the uncertainty in the US economy is high; further economic data will be taken into consideration before determining to have an extra tightening step or not.  As the investor’s expectation of a further rate hike started to fade, yesterday’s upbeat data failed to ignite the dollar market.  According to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the US Nonfarm Employment Change dropped from the prior reading of 291K to 278K in May, but far higher than the market consensus at 170K.  At the same time, the Department of Labor in the US also reported the Initial Jobless Claims data at 232K, lower than the forecast of 235K.  These positive job data provided well-enough room to Fed for further rate hike if needed.  As of writing, the dollar index edged down -0.73% to 103.55.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices skyrocketed by 4.85% to $70.90 per barrel as the weakness of the US dollar benefited the non-US oil buyer in terms of their cost of purchasing.  Besides, gold prices were up by 0.20% to $1977.30 per troy ounce as the dollar weakened.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its losses toward the support level at 103.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2525. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2525, 1.2645

Support level: 1.2405, 1.2300

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.0770. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.0770, 1.0915

Support level: 1.0665, 1.0575

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 138.95. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 138.95.

Resistance level: 141.60, 144.85

Support level: 138.95, 137.60

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6565, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6285

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6040. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6040.

Resistance level: 0.6150, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6040, 0.5925

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3485. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3565, 1.3635

Support level: 1.3485, 1.3395

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9160, 0.9230

Support level: 0.9075, 0.9000

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 70.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 70.15, 73.90

Support level: 66.50, 61.95

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1980.00. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 1980.00.

Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70

Support level: 1951.60, 1889.55

01 June 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The euro fell after CPI in major countries cooled.

The pair of the euro against the greenback, fell after cpi in major countries showed cooled conditions and hint the European Bank (ECB) to pause its tightening monetary policy. Data released on Wednesday included French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and German CPI Data. The CPI in French slipped more than expected from 0.6% to -0.1%, as the market expects the reading slightly reduce to 0.4%. While the German CPI eased to -0.1% from 0.4% in the previous month’s reading, lower than market expectations of 0.6%. The euro finally lost its appeal to investors as the data eased pressure on the European Central Bank to tighten policy further. Moreover, French consumer spending fell to -1.0% from -0.8% the previous month. The data continues to plummet due to lower energy consumption and a further fall in food consumption, as household fall in purchasing power after the significant impact of the inflationary context. It is clear that the French economy will fall sharply as consumer spending is unlikely to contribute a positive reading to the GDP growth in the second quarter. This may also make the European Central Bank choose not to raise interest rates in the upcoming interest rate decision. As of writing, the EUR/USD edged up 0.01% to 1.0690.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices were traded up by 0.63% to $68.50 per barrel following the prior large surprise build in US crude stocks. Besides, gold prices ticked up by 0.14% to $1965.33 per troy ounce amid bets on the Fed pause in June.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:30                     EUR                       ECB President Lagarde Speaks

19:30                     EUR                       ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 104.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its losses toward the support level at 103.75.

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2445. However, MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergoes technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 139.80.

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6525.

Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6440, 0.6370

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 0.6050, 0.6120

Support level: 0.5980, 0.5885

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.3590. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses towards the support level at 1.3515.

Resistance level: 1.3590, 1.3670

Support level: 1.3515, 1.3420

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.

Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9285

Support level: 0.9090, 0.9005

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 70.65, 73.20

Support level: 67.00, 63.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 1954.90.

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15

01 June 2023                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar surged amid the stronger-than-expected JOLTs job data.

The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, managed to extend its gains and hit its 11-week highs yesterday as the upbeat labor data boosted the market sentiment in the US. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US JOLTs Job Openings data rose from the prior reading of 9.745M to 10.103M this month, significantly higher than the consensus forecast at 9.775M, signaling that the US labor market remained resilient despite the continuous rate hike by Federal Reserve. With that, it could compel the Fed to increase the interest rate further as the positive job data provided more room for Fed to do so. However, the dollar index backed off from its highs after Fed’s members slashed the possibility of further rate hike in the upcoming Fed’s meeting. Early today, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick T. Harker commented that they do not have to hike the cash rate at every meeting. Besides, Fed’s Philip Jefferson revealed that higher rates could exacerbate the banking stress, signaling his high unwillingness of further rate hike in the upcoming meeting. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.06% to 104.25.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices plunged by -1.96% to $68.20 per barrel as the strengthened of US dollar and weaker-than-expected China Manufacturing PMI dampened the outlook of this black commodity product. Besides, gold prices were up by 0.20% to $1966.45 per troy ounce following the dollar weakened.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

19:30                     EUR                                        ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2405. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2405, 1.2525

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2200

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0665. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction in short term.

Resistance level: 1.0770, 1.0915

Support level: 1.0665, 1.0575

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 141.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 138.95.

Resistance level: 141.60, 144.85

Support level: 138.95, 137.60

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6425.

Resistance level: 0.6565, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6285

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6040. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6040.

Resistance level: 0.6150, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6040, 0.5925

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3560. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3635, 1.3730

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3485

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9160

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8865

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 70.15. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 66.50.

Resistance level: 70.15, 73.90

Support level: 66.50, 61.95

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1980.00.

Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70

Support level: 1951.60, 1889.55

31 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The Aussie dipped after the crucial economic data release.

The pair of AUS/USD, which is commonly knowns as the Aussie, failed to extend its gains after a series of crucial economic data releases. A stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) and private sector spending in April pushed the Aussie higher but revised its trend to decline after weaker Chinese manufacturing data. The CPI rose to 6.8% in April from a year earlier, Australian Statistician data showed on Wednesday, compared with 7.0% in the previous reading and market expectations of 6.4%. While the private sector credit marked at 0.6% on a monthly basis, higher than the previous figure of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.3%. Both economic data reflect that Australian consumer spending power remains resilient despite the Reserve Bank of Australia rose the interest rate by 375 basis points since May last year to 11 years higher 3.85%. Consumer prices rose more than expected in April, with strong consumer spending suggesting sticky inflation could weigh on the central bank. Nonetheless, the Aussie changed its moves from gains to losses after China manufacturing showed a contraction in business activity in May.  Manufacturing PMI in May recorded 48.8 in May, lower than 49.2 in April, China Logistics Information central data showed, as economists expect the figures to rise back to 51.4. China’s manufacturing sector has contracted for two consecutive months, which will lead to a decline in Australian export transactions. As a result, demand for the Australian dollar falls. As of writing, the AUD/USD dipped by -0.37% to 0.6494.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices shrank by –0.29% to $59.26 per barrel after China’s manufacturing sector showed a contraction condition. Besides, gold prices were traded down by -0.07% to $1958.03 per troy ounce following the dollar strengthening

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                       ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 104.45.

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2445. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.0635.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 139.80. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6600

Support level: 0.6440, 0.6365

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6050. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.5980.

Resistance level: 0.6050, 0.6120

Support level: 0.5980, 0.5885

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.3600. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3665.

Resistance level: 1.3665, 1.3785

Support level: 1.3590, 1.3515

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9090.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 70.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 70.65, 73.20

Support level: 67.00, 63.85

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1954.90. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15

31 May 2023                       Morning Session Analysis

Dollar retreated following Japan emergency meeting.

The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, failed to extend its gains after hitting the 10 week high following the emergency meeting yesterday. In the meeting, the country top currency diplomat revealed that Japan will closely monitor the currency market movement and they would respond “appropriately” as needed. The statement came out after the financial authorities including Ministry of Finance (MOF), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and regulator met in response to a weakening in the yen to its softest in six months versus the dollar. With that, the Japanese Yen surged against the US dollar as it signaled a potential market intervention such as huge buy back of the currency in order to tame the sharp depreciation of Yen. However, the drop in dollar value was limited as the optimism over the debt ceiling issue still supporting the dollar index. Now, investors are eyeing on the key vote of passing the debt limit proposal in Congress, as an unexpected result would disrupt the entire financial market. As of writing, the dollar index edged down -0.14% to 104.05.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices plunged by -3.79% to $70.15 per barrel as the market concerned about the progress of passing the debt ceiling deal. Besides, gold prices were up by 0.03% to $1958.65 per troy ounce following the dollar weakened.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                     EUR                                        ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.2405. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2405, 1.2525

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2200

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1.0665. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0770.

Resistance level: 1.0770, 1.0915

Support level: 1.0665, 1.0575

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 141.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 138.95.

Resistance level: 141.60, 144.85

Support level: 138.95, 137.60

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6425.

Resistance level: 0.6565, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6285

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6040. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6040.

Resistance level: 0.6150, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6040, 0.5925

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3635. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3565.

Resistance level: 1.3635, 1.3730

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3485

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9160

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8865

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 70.15. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 73.90, 77.15

Support level: 70.15, 66.50

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1951.60, 1980.00

Support level: 1889.55, 1839.40

30 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The Japanese Yen climbed after unemployment data was reduced.

The Japanese Yen, which was traded against the greenback, climbed after the unemployment data was reduced.  Japan’s unemployment slips 0.2% more than market expectations of 2.7% from 2.8% to 2.6%, government data showed Tuesday. The number of full-time workers rose to 36.34 million, the highest since 2013. Companies are paying higher wages to lure workers amid chronic labour shortages, with Japanese top companies, in particular, agreeing to the biggest pay increase in decades as inflation surges. Besides the active job openings-to-applicants ratio in April was in line with market expectations and marked at 1.32. Construction and manufacturing are laying off workers as higher raw material prices and higher commodity prices worsen the order environment. However, the gains of the Japanese yen were limited by BoJ’s Governor Ueda’s speech. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the inflation rate is not sustained by 2% and predicted the inflation would begin to fall sharply in the middle of the year. Hence, BoJ might extend its ultra-loosen monetary policy to keep inflation sustainable at 2%. As of writing, the JPY/USD slipped to -0.26% to $140.22.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices ticked down by -0.39% to $ 72.40 per barrel as the market’s concerns over the rate hike possibility. Besides, gold prices teeter down by -0.22% to $1941.49 per troy ounce as the investor risk appetite increased.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing to the upward trend line. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its losses after it successfully break below the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 12590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing for the downward trend line. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains after it successfully breaks above the downward trend line.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 10635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior breakout retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 139.80.

Resistance level: 141.60, 143.80

Support level: 139.80, 138.15

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6525, 0.6440

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6050. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6050, 0.6120

Support level: 0.5980, 0.5885

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.3600. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 1,3600, 1.3665

Support level: 1.3515, 1.3420

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.9005.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 73.20. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains after it successfully break above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 73.20, 76.05

Support level: 70.65, 67.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level at 1954.90.

Resistance level: 1954.90, 1985.50

Support level: 1928.15, 1900.15

30 May 2023                       Morning Session Analysis

US dollar muted amid Memorial Day.

The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, lingered near the highest level in 10 weeks amid subdued trading activities on Memorial Day holiday in the US.   Prior to that, the appeal of the US dollar was boosted by the optimism over the debt ceiling deal, where a deal was sealed between US President Joe Biden and the House’s Speaker McCarthy.   However, the deal must still be needed to go through a legal process before enforcement, which means it is still subject to the approval of Congress.   The voting on the bill is set to start after Memorial Day in the House and the Senate.   On the other hand, the high possibility of a further rise in the US cash rates continued to support the value of the dollar index, prompted by the upbeat economic data last week.   According to the CME FedWatch Tools, the chances of taking a step further in the rate hike path rose from the prior week’s reading of 25.7% to 61.9% this week, while the likelihood of leaving the rate at the current level is at 38.1%.   In the second half of the week, market participants will keep a close eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI, the ADP employment change, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics May employment report. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.04% to 104.25.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices edged down by -0.53% to $72.55 per barrel as the market concerns about further rate rise outweigh the temporary debt ceiling deal struck in the US.   Besides, gold prices dropped by -0.14% to $1943.05 per troy ounce as the default risk eased.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2300. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2405, 1.2525

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2200

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0770. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0665.

Resistance level: 1.0770, 1.0915

Support level: 1.0665, 1.0575

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 138.95. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 141.60.

Resistance level: 141.60, 144.85

Support level: 138.95, 137.60

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6425.

Resistance level: 0.6565, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6285

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6040. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6040.

Resistance level: 0.6150, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6040, 0.5925

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3635. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3565.

Resistance level: 1.3635, 1.3730

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3485

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9160

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8865

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the upward trend line. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 73.90.

Resistance level: 73.90, 77.15

Support level: 70.15, 66.50

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 1951.60, 1980.00

Support level: 1889.55, 1839.40

29 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The Pound rebound after upbeat retail sales.

The Pound Sterling, which was traded against the greenback, rebounded after an upbeat UK retail sales release followed by a recent hawkish statement from the Bank of England (BoE). The UK released retail sales figures for April on Friday, confirming a statement from the UK’s official Office for National Statistics (ONS) the poor retail sales in March were caused by heavy rain. Retail sales in April recorded at 0.5%, from -1.2% in March, higher than 0.4% market expectations. It signaled that UK retailers regain some confidence in April. Overall sales volumes in April improved as Non-food store categories increased by 1.0% in April due to poor weather conditions affecting the March sales, followed by food stores sales volume rose by 0.7%. Nonetheless, automotive fuel sale volume reduced by 2.2% in April. Besides, the recently hawkish statement from the Bank of England (BoE) Governor support the Pound extended its gains. In the interview, BoE Bailey said if evidence of more persistent inflation pressure, then further tightening would be required by BoE. However, the gains of the pair GBPUSD were limited due to the greenback strengthened after a series of upbeat economic data. As of writing, the pair of GBPUSD gained 0.06% to $1.2348.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices appreciated by 0.83% to $73.27 per barrel amid investors’ optimism on US economy. Besides, gold prices ticked down -0.01% to $1945.74 per troy ounce following a prior investors’ increased risk appetitive, amid a tentative deal was made to increase the debts limits.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   USD                       Memorial Day

All Day                   GBP                       Bank Holiday

All Day                   CHF                       Pentecost

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following the prior retracement from the previous higher level. MACD which illustrated bullish increasing momentum suggests the index extended its losses toward the support level at 103.75

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 139.80.

Resistance level: 141.60, 143.80

Support level: 139.80, 138.15

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6525, 0.6440

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6050. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.6120, 0.6195

Support level: 0.6050, 0.5980

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 1.3600. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.3685, 1.3785

Support level: 1.3600, 1.3515

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 73.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains after it successfully break above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 73.20, 76.05

Support level: 70.65, 67.00

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in a short term.

Resistance level: 1954.90, 1985.50

Support level: 1928.15, 1900.20

29 May 2023                       Morning Session Analysis

US dollar jumped after a tentative debt ceiling deal was achieved.

The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, extended its rally in the morning trading session as the achievement of a tentative deal in raising the debt ceiling wiped off the market worries over the risk of default.  Yesterday, US President Joe Biden and House speaker Kevin McCarthy agreed in principle to a tentative deal that would increase the debt limit while the temporary cap on some federal spending at current levels.  In detail, the deal would suspend the debt ceiling through January 2025.  Although the deal will avert a catastrophically destabilizing default, there is still a difficult path whereby it has to pass through Congress before the US runs out of money to pay back its debt before the 5th of June.  The House and Senate are expected to return Wednesday after Memorial Day.  McCarthy said the House would vote Wednesday and then send the bill to the Senate.  The bill will be passed to Joe Biden right after the approval has been granted by the majority of the Senator.  If all goes well, the US will be able to avoid the potential default by June 5.  As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.05% to 104.25.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices edged up by 0.43% to $73.25 per barrel as the tentative deal of raising the debt limit has cleared up the cloudy prospect of this black commodity.  Besides, gold prices dropped by -0.03% to $1945.20 per troy ounce as the risk of default fell significantly right after a deal had been achieved between Joe Biden and McCarthy.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   USD                                        Memorial Day

All Day                   GBP                                        Bank Holiday

All Day                   CHF                                         Pentecost

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2300. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2405, 1.2525

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2200

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0770. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0665.

Resistance level: 1.0770, 1.0915

Support level: 1.0665, 1.0575

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 138.95. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 141.60.

Resistance level: 141.60, 144.85

Support level: 138.95, 137.60

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6425.

Resistance level: 0.6565, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6285

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6040. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6040.

Resistance level: 0.6150, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6040, 0.5925

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3635. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3635, 1.3730

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3485

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9160

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8865

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the upward trend line. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 73.90.

Resistance level: 73.90, 77.15

Support level: 70.15, 66.50

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 1951.60, 1980.00

Support level: 1889.55, 1839.40

26 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

Euro slumped as Germany entered recession.

The Euro, which acts as the single currency of the European Union, teetered near the brink of collapse as the strongest economy in the EU entered the stage of recession.  According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the German GDP posted a reading at -0.3%, lower than the consensus forecast of -0.1%, mirroring that the German economy has been in the negative territory of growth for the 2nd consecutive quarter.  Comparing Germany with other highly developed countries, the German economy was losing its potential for growth which prompted investors to move away their investments from the country.  In detail, the main contribution causing negative growth in the recent month came from the significant drop in government spending and household consumption, about -4.9% and -1.2% on QoQ basis respectively.  In fact, sky-high inflation was the main factor pressuring consumer spending in recent months, as the high price of goods and services reduce the spending power of the consumer.  As of writing, the pair of EUR/USD edged up by 0.06% to 1.0735.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices edged down -0.21% to $71.65 per barrel as the prospect of no further oil cut plan weighed on the black commodity price.  Besides, gold prices edged up by 0.26% to $1946.10 per troy ounce after hitting the lowest level in 2 months’ time.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2300. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2405, 1.2525

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2200

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0770. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0665.

Resistance level: 1.0770, 1.0915

Support level: 1.0665, 1.0575

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 138.95. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 141.60.

Resistance level: 141.60, 144.85

Support level: 138.95, 137.60

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6425.

Resistance level: 0.6565, 0.6675

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6285

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6040. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6040.

Resistance level: 0.6150, 0.6290

Support level: 0.6040, 0.5925

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3635. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3635, 1.3730

Support level: 1.3565, 1.3485

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9075. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9160

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8865

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the upward trend line. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the upward trend line.

Resistance level: 73.90, 77.15

Support level: 70.15, 66.50

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1951.60. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1951.60, 1980.00

Support level: 1889.55, 1839.40

26 May 2023             Morning Session Analysis                           

The Greenback soars amid a resilient economy.

The dollar index, which traded against a basket of six major currencies, extended its gains toward 104.00 level amid a resilient economy. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly after the prior week’s data revised to a low, suggesting persistent labor market strength. The initial jobless claims increased to 229K from 225k after the previous data was revised, but the recent figures were lower than the market consensus at 250k, giving the dollar a boost. Economists expect layoffs to increase as the high-interest rate spread through the economy and tightening financial conditions make it harder for small businesses to extend credit. However, the labor data came in better than forecast, in line with recent Service PMI data that suggests the economy is expanding in the second quarter. In a separate report, the Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis unveil the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and confirmed the economy is cooling down. GDP rose 1.3% in the first quarter, compared with 2.6% in the previous quarter, but was higher than the consensus estimates of 1.1%, marking the third consecutive expansion of the economy.  Apart from this, US President Biden and Republication McCarthy appear near to a deal on the US debt ceiling as default looms, according to a Reuters report. As of writing, the dollar index edged up by 0.36% to 104.17.

In commodity markets, crude oil fell -0.07% to $71.78 a barrel after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister expected no new oil cuts from OPEC at its meeting on Jun 4th. Besides, gold prices tickled by 0.04% to $1941.53 per troy ounce as the dollar strengthened.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.75. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 104.45.

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.2300.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1.0790. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in a short term.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0940

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 139.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 139.80.

Resistance level: 141.60, 143.80

Support level: 139.80, 138.15

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6525, 0.6600,

Support level: 0.6440, 0.6365

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 0.6050. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses if successfully breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6120, 0.6195

Support level: 0.6050, 0.5980

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1.3600. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3685, 1.3785

Support level: 1.3600, 1.3515

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 0.9005. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9090.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 73.20, 76.05

Support level: 70.65, 67.00

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior breaks below from the previous support level at 1954.90. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 1928.15.

Resistance level: 1954.90, 1985.50

Support level: 1928.15, 1900.20

25 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The Kiwi moved opposite after RBNZ hiked the 25bps rate.

The New Zealand dollar traded against the greenback, and extended its losses after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked the official cash rate by 25 bps from 5.25% to 5.50%, in an effort to further control inflation. The RBNZ members agreed to hike the rate amid employment well above its maximum sustainable level and core inflation will remain until the factory capacity constraints ease further. Since both data provided evidence for RBNZ to hike the rate, therefore the tightening moves were widely expected by investors. Usually, the rate decision will be accompanied by the RBNZ rate statement, and investors are waiting for a more hawkish RBNZ statement to get a hint of the future direction of the currency that will provide more. However, the project by the central bank was more dovish than expected and caused the Kiwi to drop significantly. The central bank projected that would be a rate cut for the next move, which could likely come later next year.  Meanwhile, the retail sales in April were recorded at -1.4% from -1.0% in the previous quarter, reflecting households reduced their spending. The retail sales data fell for the second consecutive quarter as higher interest pressure was on the overall retail activity.  New Zealand households are squeezed in their finances after the cost-of-living increases. As of writing, the NZDUSD extended losses by -0.41% to $0.6088.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices were tickled down by -0.16% to $74.22 per barrel as the growing pressure from the strong dollar. Besides, gold prices edged up by 0.01% to $1957.38 per troy ounce as the uncertainty of the US debt ceiling talks.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 104.45.

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2445. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.2300.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.0635.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0940

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 139.80.

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower when currently testing for the support level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses if successfully breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6685

Support level: 0.6525, 0.6440

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below from the previous support level at 0.6120. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 0.6120, 0.6195

Support level: 0.6050, 0.5980

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1.3600. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3685, 1.3785

Support level: 1.3600, 1.3515

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.9005. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9090.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 73.20. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 76.05, 79.15

Support level: 73.20, 70.65

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1985.50. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 1954.90.

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15

25 May 2023                       Morning Session Analysis

US Dollar surged as the possibility of further rate hikes increased.

The dollar index, which was traded against a basket of six major currencies, extended its rally during the previous trading session as the hawkish stance of the Fed member overweighed the market worrier with regards to the debt ceiling impasses. Yesterday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller said that he is concerned about the lack of progress on inflation. Hence, the official cash rate may not rise at next month’s Fed meeting, but an end to the rate-raising plan is unlikely at this moment. He also highlighted that the Fed need more evidence to show that the US inflation is moving toward their long term target, which is 2%. Waller’s hawkish view on the rate hike plan triggered continuous buying momentum in the dollar market, making it to hit the highest level in almost 10 weeks. On the other hand, the debt ceiling talk between the two major parties in the US continues as default deadline looms, but the deal is not imminent as divergence still exist between both parties. As of writing, the US dollar rose 0.39% to 103.90.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices were traded down by -0.12% to $74.15 per barrel as the strengthening of US dollar diminished the appeal of this black commodity at the moment. Besides, gold prices edged up by 0.15% to $1960.30 per troy ounce as the risk of default looms.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.00. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 105.00.

Resistance level: 105.00, 106.65

Support level: 103.00, 100.65

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2405. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.2525, 1.2645

Support level: 1.2405, 1.2300

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0770. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 1.0915, 1.1010

Support level: 1.0770, 1.0665

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 138.95. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 138.95.

Resistance level: 138.95, 141.60

Support level: 137.60, 136.30

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6565. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6785

Support level: 0.6565, 0.6425

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6150. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 0.6150.

Resistance level: 0.6290, 0.6455

Support level: 0.6150, 0.6040

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.3565. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 1.3560, 1.3635

Support level: 1.3485, 1.3395

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9000. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9075.

Resistance level: 0.9075, 0.9160

Support level: 0.9000, 0.8865

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 73.90. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

Resistance level: 73.90, 77.15

Support level: 70.15, 66.50

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1980.00. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1951.60.

Resistance level: 1980.00, 2020.70

Support level: 1951.60, 1889.55

24 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

The Pound slipped after PMI missed market expectations.

The Pound Sterling, which was traded against the greenback, extended its losses following the PMI missed market expectations.  Composite UK data included an index of activity in the largest economy’s services PMI which fell to 55.1 from 55.9 in the previous month, below expectations for 55.5. A Service PMI that stood above the level of 50 indicated an expansion in service activities in the UK despite the reading being lower than market consensus. In a May survey on the service sector growth is fueling new inflationary pressures, as service providers struggle to meet demand not only by raising wages to attract labor but also by increasing fees for services to fulfill labor shortage. However, the business activities in the manufacturing sector showed divergence, as the actual figures fell to 46.9 from 47.8 in the previous month, below expectations for 48.0from the service sector in May as many companies winded down their inventories after the downturn in demand and driven by both output and prices lower. Hence, the pair of GBPUSD extended losses after the mixed economic data was released. Nonetheless, the losses of the Pound were limited by the hawkish statement from the Bank of England (BoE) Governor. The BoE Governor Bailey remarks that the labor market condition remains resilient conditions, although the data showed some signs of loosening. The central bank has underestimated food price inflation, if upcoming economic data continue to signal that inflation in a persistent level, BoE will further tightening in monetary policy would be required. As of writing, the pair of GBPUSD ticked up by 0.20% to $1.2439.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices ticked up by 1.21% to $73.78 per barrel after traders were concerned about tightening supply from OPEC+. Meanwhile, investors eyed on upcoming EIA weekly inventories report. Besides, gold prices traded up by 0.15% to $1978.08 per troy ounce after debt ceiling issues near the default date.

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

17:30                     GBP                       BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

21:00                     GBP                       BoE Gov Bailey Speaks

02:00                     USD                       FOMC Meeting Minutes

(25^th)

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior rebound from the previous support level at 102.80. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 103.75.

Resistance level: 103.75, 104.45

Support level: 102.85, 101.90

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following the prior rebound the lower level. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below the previous support level at 1. 0790. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0930

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following the prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 138.15.

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6600. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended it losses if successfully breaks below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6685, 0.6775

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6525

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior break below the previous support level at 0.6195. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended it losses toward the support level.

Resistance level: 0.6195, 0.6265

Support level: 0.6120, 0.6050

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior rebound above the lower level. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3515.

Resistance level: 1.3515, 1.3600

Support level: 1.3420, 1.3330

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9005. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 73.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its gains toward the resistance level.

Resistance level: 76.05, 79.15

Support level: 73.20, 70.65

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 1954.90. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15