GCM Asia – Latest Analysis

210220 Afternoon Session Analysis

21 February 2020                              Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Pound sterling recovers as Retail Sales delivers.

Pound sterling managed to recoup its losses on yesterday following the release of bullish data from United Kingdom. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.05% to 1.2885. According to Office for National Statistics, Retail Sales for the month of January came in at 0.9%, slightly higher than forecast of 0.7%. The data shows that consumer spending is still resilient despite ongoing Brexit risk which continues to cast a shadow upon UK’s future economic outlook. On the other hand, CBI reported that its Industrial Trends Orders came in slightly higher at -18, better than forecast with -19. The data shows that expectation towards manufacturing companies in UK has recovered slightly as they expect output to recover in the next three months due to an improvement in domestic economic condition.

 

As for commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.21% to $53.34 per barrel. Oil futures remains under bearish pressure as worries over coronavirus impact upon global oil demand continues to linger. On the other hand, gold price extended gains by 0.16% to $1,621.69 a troy ounce due to risk aversion in the market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.3 44.8
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI 53.3
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 50.0
17:30 GBP – Services PMI 53.9
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.4% 1.4%
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.4%  
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Jan) 5.54M 5.45M  
02:00

(22nd)

CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 678

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 99.40. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 99.40.

 

Resistance level: 99.90, 100.45

Support level: 99.40, 98.90

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2865. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.2960.

 

Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080

Support level: 1.2865, 1.2750

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 1.0795. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.0885.

 

Resistance level: 1.0885, 1.0990

Support level: 1.0795, 1.0680

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 112.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a technical correction towards the support level 111.75.

 

Resistance level: 112.20, 112.80

Support level: 111.75, 111.20

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6600. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6600. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level

 

Resistance level: 0.6380, 0.6490

Support level: 0.6320, 0.6250

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the support level 1.3250. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.3325.

 

Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3380

Support level: 1.3250, 1.3170

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded flat while currently testing the resistance level 0.9835. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 0.9755.

 

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9915

Support level: 0.9755, 0.9695

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 54.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 52.55.

 

Resistance level: 54.20, 56.30

Support level: 52.55, 51.25

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1613.35. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1646.30

 

Resistance level: 1646.30, 1676.90

Support level: 1613.35, 1588.05

 

210220 Morning Session Analysis

21 February 2020                               Morning Session Analysis

Yen slumped as rising number of the virus cases in Japan.

The Japanese Yen slumped amid to unease grows about the rising number of the coronavirus cases in Japan, which dialling down the market optimisms toward the economic progression in the Japan. According to CNBC, the Japan’s health authorities confirmed seven new confirmed infections of the coronavirus, pushing the new total number of patients outside the passengers and crew from the ship to over 90 people. In fact, there are fears that the coronavirus could be prompting the Japanese government to cancel the Olympic Games in Tokyo. Moreover, according to Reuters, around $27 billion in net foreign bond was purchased by Japanese investors in the first two weeks of February as they are lack of confidence in domestic investment. On the other hand, Dollar index received bullish momentum over a backdrop of the upbeat data from the United Stated region. According to Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index notched up from the previous reading of 17.0 to 36.7, exceeding the economist forecast at 12.0, which indicating the business conditions in Philadelphia remained strong while insinuating a greater demand for the US Dollar. As of writing, USD/JPY depreciated by 0.05% to 112.03 while Dollar index surged 0.17% to 99.75.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil price slumped 0.19% to $53.58 per barrel. However, the oil market edged higher yesterday following the oil inventory data was released. According to Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Crude Oil inventories reduced from the preliminary reading of 7.459M to 0.414M, lower than the market forecast at 2.494M while providing further bullish support for this black commodity. On the other hand, the gold prices appreciated by 0.14% to $1621.35 per troy ounces as diminishing risk appetite in the FX market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.3 44.8
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI 53.3
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 50.0
17:30 GBP – Services PMI 53.9
18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.4% 1.4%
21:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% 0.4%  
23:00 USD – Existing Home Sales (Jan) 5.54M 5.45M  
02:00

(22nd)

CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 678

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 99.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 99.80, 100.45

Support level: 99.05, 98.35

 

GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2865. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3070

Support level: 1.2865, 1.2640

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded within a range while currently testing the support level at 1.0780. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0780, 1.0655

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 112.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 112.20, 113.55

Support level: 109.95, 108.55

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6720. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6480.

 

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6975

Support level: 0.6480, 0.6285

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6325. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6380, 0.6425

Support level: 0.6325, 0.6275

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3230. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.3330.

 

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3230, 1.3180

 

USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9840. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9900

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9730

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 52.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 55.55.

 

Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45

Support level: 52.80, 49.30

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1589.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1639.00.

 

Resistance level: 1639.00, 1677.90

Support level: 1589.85, 1550.50

 

 

200220 Afternoon Session Analysis

20 February 2020                               Afternoon Session Analysis

 

AUD plunged after China cut interest rates.

Australian dollar plunged to fresh 11-years low after People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced to cut their interest rates. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD slumped by 0.41% to 0.6647, its lowest level since February 2009. In a largely anticipated move, PBOC announced to cut its interest rate by 10 basis points for 1-year loan prime rate and 5 basis points for 5-year loan prime rate. The decision was made in response to the recent outbreak of coronavirus which has led to a stall in China’s economic momentum. Thus, a lower borrowing cost would help to ease financial strains on companies which were hit by the epidemic. However, Australian dollar managed to limit its losses following the release of optimistic employment data earlier today. Employment Change for the month of January came in higher than expected with 13.5K versus forecast of 10.0K. Likewise, participation rate for January inches up to 66.1% from 66.0%. For the time being, traders will continue to monitor coronavirus infection status in China as well as upcoming economic data in order to received more market signals.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.45% to $53.73 per barrel. Oil futures received some bullish momentum after PBOC announced to cut their interest rates in order to limit economic impact from coronavirus epidemic. This would also limit its impact upon oil demand from the world’s largest oil importer. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.15% to $1,609.01 a troy ounce as investor’s anticipate PBOC’s rate cut decision to help limit coronavirus impact in terms of economic momentum.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30                       EUR                      ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.6% 0.5%
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 17.0 12.0
00:00

(21st)

CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 7.459M 2.987M

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 99.40. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 99.90.

 

Resistance level: 99.90, 100.45

Support level: 99.40, 98.90

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.2960. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2865.

 

Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3080

Support level: 1.2865, 1.2750

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0795. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.0885.

 

Resistance level: 1.0885, 1.0990

Support level: 1.0795, 1.0680

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 111.20. MACD which display ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.75.

 

Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20

Support level: 111.20, 110.65

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6675. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6600.

 

Resistance level: 0.6675, 0.6765

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6550

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6380. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6320.

 

Resistance level: 0.6380, 0.6490

Support level: 0.6320, 0.6270

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3250. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.3250.

 

Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3325

Support level: 1.3170, 1.3095

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9835. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction towards the support level 0.9755.

 

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9915

Support level: 0.9755, 0.9695

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 54.20. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 54.20, 56.30

Support level: 52.55, 51.25

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1613.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction towards the support level 1588.05.

 

Resistance level: 1613.35, 1646.30

Support level: 1588.05, 1563.45

200220 Morning Session Analysis

20 February 2020                               Morning Session Analysis

Dollar index surged as positive economic data.

Dollar index surged over a backdrop of the positive data from the United Stated region. According to Census Bureau, U.S. Building Permits for last month notched up from the preliminary reading of 1.420M to 1.551M, exceeding the economist forecast at 1.450M. Besides that, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for last month increased from the previous reading of 0.2% to 0.5%, which also better than the economist forecast at 0.1%. As the data both came in better than expectation, which increasing the market optimisms toward the economic progression in the United Stated. Indeed, according to the FOMC meeting minutes, the members viewed the current stance of the monetary policy is remain appropriate for now to support the sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labour market conditions and also U.S. inflation rate, minimizing the expectations of further rate cut by the U.S. central bank in future. Such hawkish statement had further spurred some significant demand for the dollar index. As of writing, dollar index appreciated by 0.15% to 99.44.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.13% to $53.65 per barrel. However, the oil market edged higher yesterday amid the escalating tensions in Libya, which further threatening the global crude oil supply in future. The latest attack in Libya forced authorities to evacuate tankers carrying gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas before they had unloaded, which prompting the nation’s crude output dropped to around 123,000 barrels a day from the previous reading of 1.2 million a day, according to National Oil Corp. On the other hand, as of writing the gold price surged 0.06% to $1612.05 per troy ounces, buoyed by the risk-off sentiment in the FX market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

20:30        EUR         ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.6% 0.5%
21:30 USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 17.0 12.0
00:00

(21th)

CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 7.459M 2.987M

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 99.10. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward resistance level at 99.80.

 

Resistance level: 99.80, 100.45

Support level: 99.10, 98.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2950. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2875.

 

Resistance level: 1.2950, 1.2980

Support level: 1.2875, 1.2815

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0785. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655

 

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 109.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 111.80.

 

Resistance level: 111.80, 113.25

Support level: 109.85, 108.35

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6690. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6690, 0.6705

Support level: 0.6670, 0.6660

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.6375. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6890

Support level: 0.6375, 0.6325

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3240. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3180.

 

Resistance level: 1.3240, 1.3330

Support level: 1.3180, 1.3100

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9780.

 

Resistance level: 0.9840, 0.9870

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750

 

CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 52.80. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 55.55.

 

Resistance level: 55.55, 57.45

Support level: 52.80, 49.30

 

GOLD_, Daily: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1589.85. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1639.00.

 

Resistance level: 1639.00, 1677.90

Support level: 1589.85, 1550.50

 

 

190220 Afternoon Session Analysis

19 February 2020                              Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Euro droops amid downbeat economic data.

Among all of the major currencies market, euro currency refused ‘wake up’ from bearish, recording the lowest level in two years on yesterday. Euro market sentiment remain pressured as recent lackluster economic data is likely will lead to longer period of subdued growth in EU. According to Center for the European Economic Research, German ZEW economic sentiment data decreased sharply from previous month reading of 26.7 to 8.7 in February, while missing the economist forecast of 21.5. Based on the data, it is obviously indicating that the recent outbreak of coronavirus epidemic in China has triggered a huge negative impact on the global economy, causing significant drop in EU economic condition and enlarged the gap of potential and current underlying inflation pressure. On the other hand, greenback which tracks its value against a basket of major currencies managed to extend its gains yesterday following data shows US business activity in certain region start to pick up in US, showing a good sign of economic recovery. According to Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NY Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 12.90 from previous month of reading at 4.80, even stronger than the reading that forecasted by the economist. As of writing, the pair of EUR/USD notched down 0.01% to 1.0795 while dollar index ticked up 0.01% to 99.30.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciated by 0.92% to $52.60 per barrel despite current coronavirus epidemic is getting worst, which shown by increasing death rate. Markets are now eyeing on the upcoming OPEC meeting in order to scrutinize the further direction of crude oil. Besides, gold price rose 0.01% to $1601.80 a troy ounce as market remain pessimistic toward the development of coronavirus epidemic.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

03:00                     USD                                        FOMC Meeting Minutes

(20th)

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Market & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17.30 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.3% 1.6%
21.30 USD – Building Permits (Jan) 1.420M 1.450M
21.30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% 0.1%
21.30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.4%

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 99.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 99.80, 100.45

Support level: 99.05, 98.35


 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3020. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3060

Support level: 1.2980, 1.2950


 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0785. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655


 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 110.15. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 110.15, 110.65

Support level: 109.60, 109.05


 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6705.

 

Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6730

Support level: 0.6685, 0.6670


 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6380. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6490

Support level: 0.6380, 0.6325


 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3180. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3180


 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9835. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9870

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750


 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 52.35. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward resistance level at 54.05.

 

Resistance level: 54.05, 55.90

Support level: 52.35, 50.95


 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1602.50. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1602.50, 1610.00

Support level: 1588.70, 1575.35

 

190220 Morning Session Analysis

19 February 2020                              Morning Session Analysis

 

 

Dollar remain strong amid virus concerns.

The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs have rose during early Asian trading session following concerns about the damage extent that caused by the coronavirus in China. Following the increasing cases in death and infection, the return of risk aversion have encourage more gains for the greenback. On Tuesday, the number of new Covid-19 cases fell to 1,886 on Monday from 2,048 the day before. However, the World Health Organization cautioned Tuesday that “every scenario is still on the table” in terms of the epidemic’s evolution. The death toll have rose to 1868 while the number of infections stands at 72,436 so far. At the time of writing, dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.29.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price remains weak and slips 0.10% to $51.81 per barrel as of writing as investors continue to feel anxious about how fuel demand will be affected by the impact of China’s deadly coronavirus. Next, gold price soars 0.09% to $1602.05 a troy ounce at the time of writing as coronavirus fears spurs safe-haven demand.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Market & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17.30 GBP – CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.3% 1.6%
21.30 USD – Building Permits (Jan) 1.420M 1.450M
21.30 USD – PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% 0.1%
21.30 CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.4%
03.00 (20 Feb) USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 99.50. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 99.50, 99.90

Support level: 98.90, 98.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2940.

 

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3225

Support level: 1.2940, 1.2830

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0795. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.0885, 1.0990

Support level: 1.0795, 1.0680

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 109.70. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend it rebound towards the resistance level 110.20.

 

Resistance level: 110.20, 110.65

Support level: 109.70, 109.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6675.However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6765.

 

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6675, 0.6600

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6380. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6490.

 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6565

Support level: 0.6380, 0.6320

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the support level 1.3245. However, MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the recent formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.3325.

 

Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3380

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3170

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9835. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9915

Support level: 0.9755, 0.9695

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded in a tight range while currently testing near the resistance level 52.55. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 52.55, 54.20

Support level: 51.25, 49.55

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1588.05. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1613.35.

 

Resistance level: 1613.35, 1646.30

Support level: 1588.05, 1563.45

180220 Afternoon Session Analysis

18 February 2020                               Afternoon Session Analysis

AUD slips after RBA adopts dovish stance.

Australian dollar slipped against the US dollar following the release of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes during Asian trading session. According to the minutes, policymakers reiterates that an extended period of low interest rates is required in Australia in order to attain full employment and inflation target. However, the central bank remains cautious over the impact of coronavirus epidemic which poses significant risk to China’s economy as it is Australia’s major trading partner. Subsequently, policymakers signaled to loosen their monetary policy if necessary, in order to support their economy. Traders were anticipating for hawkish signals from RBA after Governor Philip Lowe expresses his optimism that Australia’s economy could overcome the impact of coronavirus. Despite receding pace of the epidemic, investors remain cautious as its impact over global economy continues to linger. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD depreciates by 0.39% to 0.6687.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped by 0.77% to $51.76 per barrel. Oil futures were dumped on Tuesday due to lingering concerns over the economic impact of coronavirus outbreak in China and its effect upon global oil demand. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.37% to $1,586.61 a troy ounce due to risk aversion in the market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) 3.2% 3.0%
17:30 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jan) 14.9K 22.6K
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 26.7 22.0
21:30 USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) 4.80 5.00


 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 99.10. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 99.05, 99.80

Support level: 98.35, 97.70


 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3020. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2985.

 

Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2985, 1.2950


 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0900. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655


 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.60. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend it losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 110.15, 110.65

Support level: 109.60, 109.05


 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6705. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6665.

 

Resistance level: 0.6705, 0.6750

Support level: 0.6665, 0.6630


 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6425. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.6380.

 

Resistance level: 0.6425, 0.6490

Support level: 0.6380, 0.6325


 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3240. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3180


 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9825. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9780.

 

Resistance level: 0.9825, 0.9870

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750


 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 52.35. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 50.95.

 

Resistance level: 52.35, 54.05

Support level: 50.95, 49.75


 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1587.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it breakout the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1587.20, 1595.90

Support level: 1576.00, 1565.00

 

180220 Morning Session Analysis

18 February 2020                               Morning Session Analysis

Yen fell following the negative data was released.

Japanese Yen received significant bearish momentum yesterday over the backdrop of the negative GDP data from the Japan region. According to Cabinet Office, Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last month notched down from the preliminary reading of 0.1% to -1.6%, worse than the economist forecast at -0.9%, dialing down the market optimisms toward the economic growth within the Japan region while prompting expectation for further rate cut in the future in order to improve the economic growth. However, the losses experienced by the Japanese Yen was limited as the deterioration of the risk appetite within the FX market following the outbreak of the coronavirus, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward the safe-haven asset such as Japanese Yen. According to Aljazeera, the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in mainland China reached 1,770 as of the end of Sunday, China National Health Commission said. In fact, across the country, there were 2,048 new confirmed infections, about 1,993 from Hubei alone, pushing the new total for the infection of coronavirus to 70,548. At this time, investors would continue to scrutinize the latest updates with regards of the economic data as well as the updates of the coronavirus in order to determine future trading strategy. As of writing, USD/JPY depreciate by 0.05% to 109.80.

 

In the commodities market, as of writing, crude oil price slumped 0.35% to $52.21 per barrels. However, the oil market edged higher yesterday as concerns over the economic slowdown from the coronavirus outbreak in China were offset by expectation that potential production cuts from major producers in future. Investors are anticipating that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, will approve a proposal to deepen production cuts and support the oil prices in future. On the other hand, as of writing the gold price appreciated by 0.25% to $1585.10 per troy ounces amid to risk-off sentiment in the FX market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
17:30 GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) 3.2% 3.0%
17:30 GBP – Claimant Count Change (Jan) 14.9K 22.6K
18:00 EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 26.7 22.0
21:30 USD – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) 4.80 5.00

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 99.05. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 99.05, 99.80

Support level: 98.35, 97.70

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3020. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.2985.

 

Resistance level: 1.3020, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2985, 1.2950

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0900. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within a range while currently near the resistance level at 109.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.15, 110.65

Support level: 109.70, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6705. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend it losses after it breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6665

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6425. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6380

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3240. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3180

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9825. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 0.9780.

 

Resistance level: 0.9825, 0.9870

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 52.35. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 52.35, 54.05

Support level: 50.95, 49.75

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1586.30. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1586.30, 1595.90

Support level: 1572.85, 1563.95

 

 

 

170220 Afternoon Session Analysis

17 February 2020                               Afternoon Session Analysis

Dollar hovered amid inconsistent market sentiment.

Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies was traded fat near the 4 months high level after US announced a series of positive economic data last Friday. According to US Census Bureau, US Retail Sales data was came in at 0.3% as widely expected, slightly ticked up as compare to last month reading. At the meantime, economists are still having optimistic view toward the US retail sector and forecasting that it is likely able to catch up the economy growth at steady pace in upcoming month. However, the gains of dollar index was limited by the recent coronavirus outbreak as market participants started to brace for the first rate cut by Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite US dollar considered as major safe haven asset, somehow market participants had begun to sell off their dollar’s holding as market bets that the pressure on Federal Reserve for an interest rate cut will heighten further as the global economy is going ‘south’, believing that the coronavirus epidemic would enlarge the gap between target and current inflation rate. As of writing, dollar index notched down 0.01% to 99.10.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 0.29% to $52.05 per barrel after data showed US added another 2 oil rig to a total of 678 in last week. The oil drilling activity which biased to downside are expected to pick up as investors concern over the negative impact of coronavirus epidemic toward crude oil outlook began to ease. Besides, gold price dropped 0.10% to $1582.75 a troy ounce as market risk-off sentiment dampen.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All day       USD        United States- Washington’s Birthday

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 99.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 99.00, 99.80

Support level: 98.35, 97.70

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3020. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3110

Support level: 1.3020, 1.2985

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0900. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within a range while currently testing the resistance level at 109.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.15, 110.65

Support level: 109.70, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6705. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6750.

 

Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6665

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.6425. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6380

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3240. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3180

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9825. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9825, 0.9870

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 52.30. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 52.30, 54.05

Support level: 50.95, 49.75

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1583.40. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1583.40, 1590.05

Support level: 1576.45, 1564.50

 

 

170220 Morning Session Analysis

17 February 2020                               Morning Session Analysis

EUR/USD slumped amid to bleak data.

EUR/USD extend its losses on last Friday over the backdrop of the bleak data from the European region. According to Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, the Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last month decrease from the previous reading of 0.2% to 0.0%, missing the economist forecast at 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for last month notched down from the preliminary reading of 1.2% to 0.9%, weaker than the economist forecast at 1.0%. As both data fared worse than expectation, which dialing down market optimism towards the economic progression in the European Union, while prompting a greater expectation for the European central bank to decrease its interest rate in the future in order to boost back the economic growth. Besides that, the euro received a further bearish momentum as the risk-off sentiment in the FX market due to the fears upon the outbreak of coronavirus. Such negative sentiment had prompted the investors to shift their investment to the safe-haven asset such as Japanese Yen and US Dollar, while spurring a further selloff for the riskier asset such as the euro. According to CNBC, the China’s latest figures showed 68,500 cases of the coronavirus while 1,665 people were killed by the virus. As of writing, EUR/USD appreciated by 0.08% to 1.0837.

 

In the commodities market, the crude oil priced depreciated by 0.11% to $52.37 per barrel as of writing. However, the oil market was traded higher on last Friday with market hoping for OPEC+ to either deepen or extending oil output cuts in the future. On the other hand, the gold price was traded higher on last Friday amid to the concerns of the coronavirus, insinuating the demand for the safe-haven metal. However, as of writing, the gold price slumped 0.10% to $1581.88 per troy ounces amid to technical correction.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All day       USD        United States- Washington’s Birthday

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

N/A

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 99.00. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 99.00, 99.80

Support level: 98.35, 97.70

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3020. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.3065, 1.3110

Support level: 1.3020, 1.2985

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0900. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.0900, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded within a range while currently testing the resistance level at 109.70. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.15, 110.65

Support level: 109.70, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6705. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6750.

 

Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6665

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6425. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6380

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3240. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3330, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3240, 1.3180

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9825. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9825, 0.9870

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 52.50. However, MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 52.50, 53.45

Support level: 51.75, 50.85

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1583.45. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1583.40, 1590.05

Support level: 1576.45, 1564.50

 

 

 

140220 Afternoon Session Analysis

14 February 2020                              Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Japanese yen in bid as coronavirus spreads.

Japanese yen held onto its gains during Asian trading session on Friday following renewed worries with regards to coronavirus outbreak. On yesterday, officials in Hubei stunned financial market after reporting a sharp increase in new infections and deaths from the coronavirus following the adoption of new method to diagnose the illness. High uncertainty with regards to the scale of the epidemic has discouraged investors from taking excessive risk in the FX market and thus led to higher demand for safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen. According to a poll in Reuters, economists speculate that China’s economy will grow at its slowest pace since the last financial crisis due to shutdown in numerous major cities. However, economists added that the impact may be short-lived if the epidemic is successfully contained. On the other hand, euro extended its losses following the release of bearish data from the region. For the month of January, Germany’s CPI came in at -0.6%, signifying the ineffectiveness of loose monetary policy from European Central Bank. As of writing, pair of USD/JPY was traded flat at 109.81 while EUR/USD slumped 0.05% to 1.0836.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.21% to $51.41 per barrel. Oil futures remains under pressure as coronavirus epidemic may significantly reduce global demand towards the commodity. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.03% to $1,576.49 a troy ounce due to risk aversion in the market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15.00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.3%
21.30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.7% 0.3%
21.30                 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% 0.3%
02:00

(15th)

CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 676

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 98.65. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 99.05.

 

Resistance level: 99.05, 99.55

Support level: 98.65, 98.20

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3035.

 

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3175

Support level: 1.3035, 1.2975

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0855. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0795.

 

Resistance level: 1.0855, 1.0895

Support level: 1.0795, 1.0740

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the 50 moving average line (Blue). MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 109.95.

 

Resistance level: 109.95, 110.25

Support level: 109.55, 109.25

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.6720. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.6720.

 

Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6755

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6680

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6455. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6405.

 

Resistance level: 0.6455, 0.6490

Support level: 0.6405, 0.6365

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3265. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3210.

 

Resistance level: 1.3265, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 0.9780. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9810.

 

Resistance level: 0.9810, 0.9845

Support level: 0.9780, 0.9750

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 51.65. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 50.65.

 

Resistance level: 51.65, 52.65

Support level: 50.65, 49.70

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1578.25. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1571.35.

 

Resistance level: 1578.25, 1584.45

Support level: 1571.35, 1564.15

 

140220 Morning Session Analysis

14 February 2020                               Morning Session Analysis

Dollar firms higher on positive U.S inflation data.

The dollar index which traded against a basket of six major currency pairs continue to edge higher during early Asian trading session following the release of U.S inflation data. According to the Labor Department, core consumer price index in the U.S have rose to 0.2%, in line with market expectation last month. At the same time, initial jobless claims data also provide a better-than-expected results with the reading of 205K against market expectation of 210K. The positive data have showed that the economy remains in a steady pace, thus providing further boost for the greenback. Besides that, Federal Reserve member John Williams also stated that the current economy is still remain in a “very good place”. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.06% to 1.3043.

 

In the commodities, crude oil price climbs 0.09% to $51.47 per barrel as of writing as investors believe that Russia and OPEC will deepen its production cuts to balance worsening demand for crude from a new spike in deaths and infections related to China’s Covid-19 epidemic. Next, gold price rose 0.08% to $1576.81 a troy ounce at the time of writing amid receding risk appetite after a new spike in deaths and infections reported by China from its Covid-19 epidemic.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
15.00 EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.3%
21.30 USD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.7% 0.3%
21.30                 USD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% 0.3%

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level 98.90. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the dollar to extend its gains towards the resistance level 99.50.

 

Resistance level: 99.50, 99.90

Support level: 98.90, 98.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.3080. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 1.2940.

 

Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3225

Support level: 1.2940, 1.2830

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 1.0885. MACD which illustrate ongoing bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0795.

 

Resistance level: 1.0885, 1.0990

Support level: 1.0795, 1.0680

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level 109.70. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 110.20, 110.65

Support level: 109.70, 109.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6675.

 

Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840

Support level: 0.6675, 0.6600

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6425. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6565

Support level: 0.6425, 0.6380

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded flat near the support level 1.3245. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.3325.

 

Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3380

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3170

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9755. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9830.

 

Resistance level: 0.9830, 0.9915

Support level: 0.9755, 0.9695

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 52.15. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction towards the support level 49.55.

 

Resistance level: 52.15, 54.65

Support level: 49.55, 46.90

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1563.45. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1588.00.

 

Resistance level: 1588.00, 1613.35

Support level: 1563.45, 1542.15

 

 

 

130220 Afternoon Session Analysis

13 February 2020                              Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Aussie dollar slumped, all eyes on Hubei.

Australian dollar extended its losses from prior high level after China’s Hubei province reported a sharp jump in the number of new cases of coronavirus. Earlier this morning, the local Hubei government reported 14,840 new cases, significantly higher than previous count of only 1,638. In addition, the total number of deaths in the province rose by 242 to 1,310. Hubei health commission said that it has started including cases which are diagnosed with new method, leading to a sharp increase in reported numbers. Investors remained pessimistic with regards to China and global economic outlook as the latest figures from Hubei signifies that the epidemic still remains as a potent threat. As China is one of Australia’s major trading partner, the data has dialed down market expectation towards Aussie’s economic growth and thus spurring a selloff on Australian dollar. However, losses on the Australian dollar were limited as investors expect Chinese policymakers to implement numerous measures in order to provide support to their economy. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD fell 0.15% to 0.6727.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.45% to $51.42 per barrel. Oil futures received significant selloff following sharp rise in new coronavirus infection in Hubei, China. The report has dialed down market speculation that the epidemic may have reached its peak while spurring concerns over a possible slump in global oil demand due to the outbreak. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.30% to $1,570.03 a troy ounce due to higher risk aversion in the market.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% 0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.65. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 98.65.

 

Resistance level: 98.65, 99.05

Support level: 98.20, 97.70

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2975. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2920.

 

Resistance level: 1.2975, 1.3035

Support level: 1.2920, 1.2870

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0895. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0855.

 

Resistance level: 1.0895, 1.0935

Support level: 1.0855, 1.0795

 

USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 109.95. MACD which illustrated bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 109.95.

 

Resistance level: 109.95, 110.25

Support level: 109.55, 109.25

 

AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6720. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6755.

 

Resistance level: 0.6755, 0.6805

Support level: 0.6720, 0.6705

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6455. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6405.

 

Resistance level: 0.6455, 0.6490

Support level: 0.6405, 0.6365

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.3265. MACD which illustrated bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3210.

 

Resistance level: 1.3265, 1.3335

Support level: 1.3210, 1.3145

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9780. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9780.

 

Resistance level: 0.9780, 0.9810

Support level: 0.9750, 0.9720

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 50.65. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 51.75.

 

Resistance level: 51.75, 52.60

Support level: 50.65, 49.70

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1571.35. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1571.35, 1578.25

Support level: 1564.15, 1558.00

130220 Morning Session Analysis

13 February 2020                               Morning Session Analysis

Yen slumped amid to positive prospect for the coronavirus.

Japanese Yen sagged on yesterday amid diminishing fears upon the coronavirus, which stoked a shift in sentiment toward the riskier asset while weighing on the demand for traditional safe-havens such as the Japanese Yen. According to China Official data, as of Wednesday morning, the growth rate of new coronavirus infections fell to the lowest level since late January. Moreover, China’s National Health Commission (NHC) announced that the recovery rate from infections increased from the preliminary reading of 1.3% on 27th January to 10.6%. Besides that, investors expect that the global central banks are likely to provided further support for the market if the coronavirus continually to destroy the global economy, which further improving the risk appetite sentiment in the FX market. On the other hand, dollar index surged on yesterday following some hawkish statement from the U.S. central bank yesterday. According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the economy growth within the U.S remained strong, despite there is a threat of the coronavirus, however he also reiterated that U.S. would continue to scrutinize the threat of the coronavirus in order to adopt a better policy for the U.S. economy. As of writing, USD/JPY appreciated by 0.01% to 110.07 while the dollar index surged 0.30% to 98.83.

 

In the commodity market, the crude oil appreciated by 0.15% to $51.75 per barrel. The oil market edged higher amid to positive prospect for the coronavirus. Investors expected that the resolution of the coronavirus would able to boost the world economy while insinuating the further demand on this black-commodity in the future. On the other hand, the gold price depreciated by 0.04% to $1565.95 per troy ounces amid to stronger U.S Dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
21:30 USD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% 0.2%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.95. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 98.95, 99.80

Support level: 98.35, 97.70

 

GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2985. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3020

Support level: 1.2920, 1.2875

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.0890. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.0785.

 

Resistance level: 1.0890, 1.1005

Support level: 1.0785, 1.0655

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 110.15. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 110.15, 110.65

Support level: 109.60, 109.05

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6705. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6665

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently near the support level at 0.6435. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6490, 0.6540

Support level: 0.6435, 0.6380

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3245. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3319, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9780. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9780, 0.9810

Support level: 0.9745, 0.9715

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 51.85. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward support level at 50.85.

 

Resistance level: 51.85, 52.55

Support level: 50.85, 49.75

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was higher while currently near the resistance level at 1571.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1571.75, 1577.15

Support level: 1562.90, 1556.95

 

 

 

 

120220 Afternoon Session Analysis

12 February 2020                               Afternoon Session Analysis

New Zealand dollar soars amid hawkish stance from RBNZ.

Among all the majority currencies, New Zealand dollar skyrocketed to one week high level following Reserve Bank New Zealand remain its unfolding monetary policy unchanged in this morning. Earlier today, RBNZ board members decided to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected while giving hawkish statement regarding to the future outlook of New Zealand. In the monetary policy statement, RBNZ revealed that their labor market is still remain resilient, growing near the maximum sustainable level. Besides, RBNZ chairman Adrian Orr also emphasized that the underlying inflation pressure in their country is remain intact while it getting nearer to the inflation target, which is at 2%. Therefore, low interest rate would never be changed in the meantime unless some course of event lead to longer period of subdued growth in New Zealand, such as recent outbreak of coronavirus. During Asian trading session, the pair of NZD/USD rose 0.95% to 0.6460.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 1.44% to $50.62 per barrel after China reported its lowest daily number of new coronavirus since late January. Recently, the growth rate of coronavirus has started to slow down, lifting up the investor hopes over oil demand may begin to recover from the outbreak of virus. Besides, gold price inched up 0.04% to $1568.00 a troy ounce amid weakening of dollar.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                              GBP                                        Autumn Budget

23.00                     USD                                        Fed Chair Powell Testifies

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
23.30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories -0.3%

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, DailyDollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 98.75. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses toward support level at 98.35.

 

Resistance level: 98.75, 99.25

Support level: 98.35, 97.75

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 1.2945. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 1.2990.

 

Resistance level: 1.2990, 1.3065

Support level: 1.2945, 1.2875

 

EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.0890. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.1005, 1.1075

Support level: 1.0890, 1.0785

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 109.95. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 109.95, 110.25

Support level: 109.60, 109.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6705. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6760.

 

Resistance level: 0.6760, 0.6795

Support level: 0.6705, 0.6665

 

NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.6435. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward resistance level at 0.6495.

 

Resistance level: 0.6495, 0.6555

Support level: 0.6435, 0.6380

 

USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3310. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward support level at 1.3245.

 

Resistance level: 1.3310, 1.3395

Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.9750. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.9775, 0.9810

Support level: 0.9750, 0.9715

 

CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 50.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 51.35.

 

Resistance level: 51.35, 52.00

Support level: 50.45, 49.75

 

GOLD_, H1: Gold price was higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1568.45. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1568.45, 1575.50

Support level: 1563.70, 1559.60